Beryl tore through the ultra-warm waters of the southeastern Caribbean like never before, turning meteorologists’ worst fears about an intensifying hurricane season into a stark reality. Now it’s Texas’ turn.
Beryl hit Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 2 hurricane on Friday before weakening to a tropical storm. It is expected to reach south Texas by Sunday night or Monday morning and regain hurricane status as it moves across the warm Gulf of Mexico.
Jack Bevin, a senior specialist at the National Hurricane Center, said Beryl could make landfall somewhere between Brownsville and north of Corpus Christi on Monday. The hurricane center predicted it would become a severe Category 1 storm, but wrote that “this may be conservative if Beryl remains on the surface longer than expected.”
The waters of the Gulf of Mexico are warm enough for the early season storm to quickly intensify, as it has done on several previous occasions.
“We shouldn’t be surprised if a hurricane rapidly intensifies before making landfall and could become a major hurricane,” said Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground and a former government hurricane meteorologist. Category 2 is probably more likely, but we shouldn’t rule out Category 3.”
Bevan said officials forecast wind speeds in Berrill to increase between 17 and 23 mph over 24 hours, but noted the storm was intensifying faster than forecasters had earlier expected in the Caribbean.
“People in South Texas need to really pay attention to Beryl’s progress right now,” Bevin said.
Masters and University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy said hurricane center forecasters have been very accurate in predicting Beryl’s path so far.
Over its week-long life, Beryl has gained wind speeds of 35 mph in 24 hours or less, the weather service’s official definition of rapid intensification.
On June 28, the storm’s winds were reported to have increased from 35 mph to 75 mph. , on July 1, the storm’s wind speed increased from 120 mph to 155 mph in just 15 hours.
Using a different tracking system, Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, said he calculated eight different periods of rapid intensification of Beryl — an occurrence that has only occurred in the Atlantic Ocean in July. twice.
MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel doesn’t think Beryl has “much chance” of another 35 mph jump in wind speeds in the Gulf of Mexico, but says it’s a big deal Difficult to predict.
Beryl’s explosive growth became a huge event in the early stages of an unprecedented storm, suggesting Literally hot water The Atlantic and Caribbean are now in the midst of the remainder of storm season, with the Atlantic hurricane belt likely to see a token amount of hot water, experts say.
The storm broke records before hurricane-force winds approached Grenada’s Carriacou island on Monday.
Beryl recorded the earliest Category 4 wind speeds of at least 130 mph (209 km/h) – the first Category 4 winds in June. It was also the first storm to rapidly intensify, with wind speeds jumping 63 mph (102 km/h) within 24 hours and transforming from an unnamed depression to a Category 4 within 48 hours.
Colorado State University’s Klotzbach calls Beryl a harbinger.
forecaster Predicted a few months ago It’s going to be a bad year and now they’re comparing it to Record busy 1933 and Fatal 2005 – Year Hurricane Katrina, Rita, Wilma and Dennis.
“This is the type of storm we’re expecting to see this year, these unusual things happening at times and places that shouldn’t happen,” said the University of Miami’s McNoldy. “Not only for things to form and intensify and reach higher intensity, but also increases the potential for rapid reinforcement.”
Warm water is the fuel for the thunderstorms and clouds that form hurricanes. Kristen Corbosiero of the University at Albany said the warmer the water temperature and the warmer the air at the base of the storm, the more likely it is that the storm will rise in the atmosphere and create deeper thunderstorms.
“So when you get all that thermal energy, you can expect some fireworks,” Masters said.
Atlantic waters have Record high temperatures since April 2023. Klotzbach said the high-pressure system that normally generates cooling trade winds then collapsed and did not recover.
Corbosiero said scientists are debating what exactly climate change It does have an impact on hurricanes, but the consensus is that it makes it easier for hurricanes to intensify quickly, as Beryl did, and to increase the intensity of the strongest storms, as Beryl did.
Slowing Atlantic currents, possibly caused by climate change, could also be a factor in warming waters, Emanuel said.
A The anti-El Niño phenomenon is brewingSlight cooling in the Pacific Ocean, which changes weather around the world, may also be a factor. Experts say La Niña tends to dampen high-altitude crosswinds, which can destroy hurricanes.
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