January 8, 2025

Former US President Donald Trump meets with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at Winfield House in London on December 3, 2019.

Nicholas Kamm | AFP | Getty Images

NATO is celebrating its 75th anniversary this week at a summit in Washington, but the alliance is facing some familiar foes and challenges: Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, Moscow’s strong alliances with China, North Korea and Iran, the military alliance’s defense spending It still exists and is a perennial problem among members.

Another familiar but unpredictable challenge looms: the possibility of another U.S. administration led by former President Donald Trump.

Trump had a tense and combative relationship with the military alliance during his last term in office from 2017 to 2021, rebuking other members for failing to abide by the agreement. Commitment in 2014 to spend 2% of national GDP on defense spending.

While campaigning to return to office in the upcoming presidential election, Trump once again angered NATO members in February when he said he would not provide military protection to any member that failed to meet its financial obligations to the alliance. , and may even “encourage” opponents to “do whatever they want” to that country.

President Donald Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan after a family photo during the annual NATO Heads of Government Summit at the Watford Grove Hotel in England on December 4, 2019 Leave the podium.

Peter Nichols | Reuters

The comments sparked outrage at the White House They were described at the time as “shocking and deranged”. Outgoing NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said: “Any suggestion that we are not protecting and defending all our allies undermines the security of all of us and puts us at risk of protecting our soldiers and soldiers on the front lines across the Alliance. Personnel are at risk.

“One for all, one for one applies to all allies and is the core of NATO,” Stoltenberg told reporters in Februaryciting Article 5 of NATO, which states that member states must defend each other.

A NATO summit is taking place in Washington this week, with members putting forward a united front on the 75th anniversary of the defense treaty, with leaders keen to step up ongoing support for non-member Ukraine by unveiling new military aid and pledging to step up.air defense system

“Anti-Trump” NATO

The leader is also believed to want to provide “Trump-proof” military aid to Ukraine ahead of his possible re-election, given that the Republican front-runner has been ambivalent about continued aid to Ukraine. While current President Joe Biden’s support for Ukraine is steadfast – the president reiterated his commitment to the fight in Kiev in a speech to delegates on Tuesday – his re-election is in doubt due to concerns about his fitness to serve as president. It’s unstable.

Analysts at Eurasia Group said they expect NATO leaders to take steps to coordinate the alliance’s aid spending in Ukraine to protect Ukraine from a possible future Trump administration.

“As a key step in ‘Trump-proofing’ Ukraine aid, NATO will take over much of the coordination of Ukraine aid from the United States,” analysts said on Tuesday, noting that such a step would make aid more difficult, but not Impossible, and the Trump administration may block support efforts in the future.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speak during a meeting in New York on September 25, 2019.

Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Images

Analysts said uncertainty about the US presidential election and the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House cast a “shadow” on the NATO summit, and “concerns about President Joe Biden’s staying power will drive several leaders to early and informal discussions between The two countries’ alliance hinges on two key issues: whether the West has a winning strategy against Ukraine, and Europe’s nuclear deterrent in the face of a potentially weakening U.S. presence. “

NATO leaders diplomacy

New British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said as he traveled to Washington for the first NATO summit that he hoped to “lock in” financial aid to Ukraine at the meeting.

Asked whether the allies could “justify” any aid deal, Starmer told reporters the summit was an opportunity to solidify the alliance’s financial commitment to Ukraine.

“This is the largest group of NATO countries and with the additions we have made to the membership and the package we are looking to move forward, it goes beyond the support previously provided and I hope that will be locked in at this NATO meeting,” he said , “The Independent” reports.

Starmer made a “firm commitment” to increase UK defense spending to 2.5% of GDP, but refused to give a timetable for the increase. UK spending in 2023 will be 2.3%, NATO data shows.

Donald Trump has previously said he could end the Russia-Ukraine war “one day” but has not revealed how he would do it. NATO leaders are taking a cautious approach to diplomacy, telling CNBC that such remarks reflect Trump’s tendency to make “bold” statements and not necessarily the reality of what will be implemented.

Poland's foreign minister says Nato must 'stay the course' until Putin abandons war

“We will react to actions,” Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski told CNBC on Tuesday when asked if he was concerned that the transatlantic alliance would not become a foreign policy focus if Trump was re-elected. rather than words.

“We’re not going to interfere in the internal politics of our great ally… We want to have the best relationship possible with the people in charge here,” he told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick on the sidelines of the Washington summit.

Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkul stressed that NATO allies do not interfere in each other’s domestic political and democratic processes.

“The American people are the ones who elect the President of the United States. So when the American people choose Donald Trump, that’s Donald Trump. Then all the countries in the world, including Estonia, including NATO allies, must agree with the current president who is coming in. Government to engage in dialogue.

Estonia's defense minister talks about Trump's second presidential term, all countries must talk to this administration

“I firmly believe that President Donald Trump of the United States also wants to be the leader of the free world and he wants to show that the United States will not lose the war in Ukraine because more is at stake. This is not just a decision for the United States,” he added.

Trump’s pressure on NATO members to increase defense spending is popular among his supporters, and even his critics argue that some NATO allies — including larger ones like Germany, Canada and France — Member States – Dragging their feet on spending. NATO’s estimates of defense spending for each member state in 2023 It shows that currently only 11 of the 32 member states meet or exceed the 2% of GDP threshold, with Poland leading the way.

Balázs Orbán, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s political director, told CNBC that Trump’s pressure on European countries is “very positive” as it pushes NATO allies to increase defense spending .

“We Europeans have to take ourselves seriously,” he told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick, describing Trump’s “pro-European” stance on defense. “If we only rely on our American friends and we don’t invest enough energy, money and preparations to ensure our own security, then what are we talking about?”

Advisor to Hungarian PM Orban says Trump has 'the most pro-European stance'

He added that out of “vital” national interests, Hungary began its military modernization program before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

“We can tell our American friends, ‘It’s great that you are here. If you get into trouble, we will be there to protect you,'” Orban said. “If we get into trouble, you can come and help us.” ”, but first and foremost, we are responsible for our own security and we have to do our job and what (former) President Trump said and how he expressed pressure on European countries, I think it is very positive.

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