Cyril Ramaphosa, chairman of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) and President of South Africa, during a rally in Johannesburg, South Africa, on May 25, 2024.
Chris McGrath | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Some thirty years after the peaceful transition from apartheid rule to democracy, South Africa may once again be on the cusp of change.
Since coming to power in South Africa’s first democratic elections in 1994, the African National Congress has worked to make inclusion a core pillar of the country’s economy.
But the party’s efforts to improve living standards for disadvantaged groups have not always been successful, and its dominance is expected to weaken in Wednesday’s election.
Current polls show that the vote share of the African National Congress, led by President Cyril Ramaphosa, may fall below 50% for the first time.
Although Nelson Mandela’s party won 57.5% of the vote in the last national election, it is on the verge of losing ground in key areas such as Gauteng, the country’s economic hub.
Out of a population of 62 million, more than 27.6 million South Africans registered vote. As voter apathy grows, turnout could become a concern.
The turnout rate for the last congressional election in 2019 was 66%, which was already 7 percentage points lower than the previous vote. Even with the highest possible voter turnout, the ANC’s vote is expected to fall below 50%.
Blackouts, unemployment, corruption and crime
The problems facing the country are many and remain systemic.
Africa’s most industrialized country has a weak power grid, leading to Hundreds of hours of power outages hampered development and manufacturing.
On February 13, 2023, in downtown Johannesburg, South Africa, vehicles drove along dark streets without lights during a load-shedding blackout.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
It’s also struggling with unemployment almost 33% — among the best in the world — Economic growth is sluggish and may hit less than 1% this year, while corruption scandals have exposed weaknesses in the governance of the ANC and its affiliates.
In addition to this, the country also has one of the highest violent crime rates in the world. 45 murders per 100,000 people.
Voters also have more choices this time, with more candidates to choose from.
Some 14,889 candidates will compete for 887 seats from at least 70 political parties.
While incumbent Ramaphosa was re-elected, his biggest rivals include the Democratic Alliance’s John Steenhuisen and the Economic Freedom Fighters’ Julius Malema.
Former South African President Jacob Zuma dances on stage before addressing supporters at the Cougar Stadium in Emaraleni, South Africa, on May 26, 2024.
Anders Pettersson | Getty Images News | Getty Images
All face a familiar foe who could become a kingmaker in this election. Former President Jacob Zuma is currently the leader of uMkhonto weSizwe, a political party that was only established in December 2023.
Zuma, who was sentenced to 15 months in prison for failing to appear at a corruption inquiry, recently won a court battle allowing him to run for parliament.
“The market reaction is obviously negative”
If the polls are to be believed, the results will lead to the formation of South Africa’s first coalition government.
Analysts at Fitch Solutions expect the ANC to form a coalition with smaller parties “allowing it to remain a major policy driver”.
However, they point to some unexpected but possible outcomes that could be negatively impacted by the market.
Fitch Solutions analysts wrote earlier this month: “We continue to propose three alternatives: a narrow ANC majority, an ANC-EFF alliance, or an opposition alliance victory, a multi-party charter “.
“While any alliance would create headwinds for policymaking and have a negative impact on investor sentiment, we believe the ANC-EFF alliance could lead to a severe adverse reaction in the market, with a negative impact on bond yields and the rand.”
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