January 1, 2025

In the race between Jordan Bardella, chairman of the French far-right National Rally (RN) party and leading candidate in the European Parliament elections, and Marine Le Pen, president of the French far-right National Rally (RN) parliamentary group At the meeting, supporters waved French flags.

François Lou Presti | AFP | Getty Images

LONDON – There has been a somewhat strange and ironic political shift in Europe over the past few years.

In Britain, which once left the European Union and was skeptical of Europe, the pendulum has just swung back to the center-left Labor Party, which will come to power after a landslide victory in the election, ending the 14-year rule of the Conservative Party.

A different picture is playing out across much of Western Europe and in countries that have defied Brexit and British populist trends for nearly a decade. These countries are now seeing their electorates shift to the right, with nationalist, populist and Eurosceptic parties topping voter polls and moving into the corridors of power.

While Britain and continental Europe are moving in different directions politically, analysts say the driving force behind the change in polling patterns is essentially the same: voters are desperate for change.

Dan Stevens, a political science professor at the University of Exeter, told CNBC: “There is anti-incumbency sentiment again in Europe.” Regardless of who the incumbent is, Stevens said, “there will be widespread dissatisfaction and dissatisfaction.” “ Want to change.

Early signs on Friday morning suggested that Britain’s Labor Party was tapping into the zeitgeist of British voters, using “change” as its rallying cry ahead of Thursday’s general election, which it won in a landslide.

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The shift to the left comes after a turbulent period in British politics during the last Conservative government, with immigration issues and Euroscepticism peaking in the 2016 Brexit referendum. Amid the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the cost-of-living crisis, more challenges loomed. Analysts say that by the time the UK general election is called, Britons are fed up.

common concerns

Britain is not the only country seeking political change. Much of Western and Eastern Europe has seen a similar shift in recent years, with far-right populist and nationalist parties upending and overthrowing old political institutions.

Far-right parties in Italy, the Netherlands, Germany and France – such as Brothers Italia, the Liberals, the Alternative for Germany or the National Rally – are rising in the polls or winning elections.

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These parties often emerged as protest factions, standing on an anti-immigration or Eurosceptic platform, but they have since adopted a more mainstream approach to appeal to a wider electorate concerned about wider general issues such as jobs, education, health care, national identity and the economy.

The latter issue was a particular driver of voting change, with rising food and energy costs and falling household disposable income having the most direct and decisive impact on voters.

“If you have a really bad economy, then you would expect the political pendulum to swing, and when it swings, it’s going to go the other way from where it is now… It’s swinging because people are living tight and upset.” It’s that simple,” Christopher Granville, managing director of EMEA and global politics at TS Lombard, told CNBC, suggesting the tide is turning against the current leadership.

“Of course, there is a huge debate about how much responsibility governments have for such poor economic performance… You can say they are catastrophically incompetent, or you can say they are innocent victims of external shocks, such as the war in Ukraine. Energy crisis, cost of living crisis, etc.,” Granville added.

“No matter where you stand on this debate, the reality is the same, voters want to swing the pendulum.”

protest vote

Many political experts blame the rise of the far right in Europe on voters’ desire to protest against the political status quo and its often perpetuated establishment figures and parties.

“Right-wing and far-right parties not only won because of immigration, yes, that was their signature topic, but they won because they appealed to a coalition of voters who voted for them for different reasons,” Center for European Studies said Professor Sofia Vasilopoulou.

“They have a lot of groups, what I call ‘peripheral’ voters, who tend to vote with them because they lack trust in politics, they lack trust in institutions, they’re tired of the status quo,” she said. “Generally speaking, It was a protest against politics, so they gained a lot of voters.”

Political analysts point out that although far-right parties in France, Germany, Italy and other countries have made gains in recent European Parliament elections, their performance has not been satisfactory.

Centrist majority, far right makes strong gains in EU elections

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