On July 7, 2024, after the partial results of the second round of the second round of parliamentary elections in Paris, France were announced, people gathered together to celebrate the victory of the left-wing alliance.
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Armin Steinbach, professor of EU law and economics at HEC Paris, said French President Emmanuel Macron’s gamble in calling for early elections has not paid off.
“That’s not reciprocated,” Steinbach told CNBC’s Charlotte Reid on Monday. “What (Macron) wanted to achieve was clarity, clarification of support for his government, and he failed.”
Macron called for a national vote on new legislation in France after his far-right party made significant gains in EU elections last month.
The far-right National Rally (RN) surged in votes in the first round of voting on June 30, amid growing concerns the party has taken a lead across the country. . Published by Ministry of Interior.
Macron’s centrist bloc will become the second largest bloc in parliament, followed by RN and its allies.
But Tina Fordham, founder of Fordham Global Insight, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday that Macron’s situation would be different even if RN finished third in the election. It will be easy.
“Yes, he was able to keep the far right in first place, but they increased their seat share and now he has to deal with this unruly left and this unruly right,” she said. “He’s going to face a real political battle in terms of his legacy.”
Fordham said the election results had weakened Macron’s influence globally, adding that it would make it harder for the president to maintain his policy positions.
HEC’s Steinbach also pointed to potential problems with policymaking. “His bloc lost the vote significantly. We now have a parliament that is one-third left, one-third right, one-third center – it is fragmented and there is a risk of gridlock. I don’t think This has been a success for us.
A parliament without a party holding an absolute majority (also known as a hung parliament) means policy making and solving issues such as public finances may now be difficult. France faces huge debts, and the European Union said last month that it would impose excessive deficit procedures because its budget deficit exceeded 3% of gross domestic product.
Steinbach added that just because the far right did not perform as well as they had hoped in this election, it does not mean they should be discounted in the 2027 presidential election.
“Today it is a loss for them… but it does not tell us anything about the 2027 presidential election. The campaign is open and the dissatisfaction of French voters and citizens has not disappeared.”
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