Stiefel said there is a 40% chance that President Joe Biden will not seek re-election.
Brian Gardner, the firm’s chief Washington policy strategist, issued a research note calling it a “make-or-break week” for the presidential campaign as Congress returns from its July 4 recess.
“There’s a 60 percent chance he’ll stay in the company,” Gardner told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Monday. “Biden loves to prove the smart kids in the Democratic Party wrong. So the more he hears from the elites The more calls he gets to quit, the more he will stand his ground.”
Gardner, who advises stock analysts on how White House policies affect their coverage, believes Democrats urging Biden to withdraw face considerable obstacles.
“They lack the leverage. They can try to convince Mr. Biden to drop out of the race, but they can’t force him to drop out,” Gardner told clients on Monday. “It is a fantasy to think that at least half of Mr. Biden’s most loyal supporters will defect from him and not vote to nominate him.”
While there have been concerns about Biden’s age throughout his recent run for the Oval Office, a poor debate performance in June changed the tone of the conversation. Polling data and financial markets are beginning to reflect a shift in sentiment in favor of former President Trump.
Gardner believes Democrats may still see favorable results if Biden remains in the race.
“There is a certain level of voters who are not going to vote for Donald Trump no matter what,” Gardner said.
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