2022 French President Emmanuel Macron campaign poster.
Sebastian Salomgomis | AFP | Getty Images
Analysts say French President Emmanuel Macron’s defeat in snap elections could inflict significant damage to his political ambitions and legacy and undermine the power and influence he has tried to build in Europe in recent years.
Macron’s expected victory in France’s last round of snap parliamentary elections over the weekend was thwarted by a surprise win for the left-wing New Popular Front coalition.
Center-right Macron, who will remain in power until 2027, now faces the prospect of having to work with a coalition or technocratic government from across the political spectrum and a prime minister, who is likely to come from the left-wing NFF. This will make it potentially difficult to pass governance, legislation and reforms in France.
Analysts said Macron’s high-risk gamble of calling an early election not only failed to pay off, but the French head of state also damaged his political standing and legacy in Europe, where he has been seeking a key leadership role.
“He’s going to face a real political battle in terms of his legacy,” Fordham Global Forward founder Tina Fordham told CNBC on Monday.
“Macron remains the towering figure and the kingmaker. It will be him who chooses the prime minister, and it will be Macron who travels to Washington for the 75th NATO summit this week, but those who think his gamble paid off (are wrong),” Ford Ham said on CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe.
“Yes, he was able to keep the far right in first place, but they increased their seat share – now he has to deal with this unruly left and this unruly right,” she added.
“I’m worried that this might (weaken him on the global stage) and that would be unfortunate for the cohesion of the EU,” she added.
Macron looks EU leader
Since taking office in 2017 following the departure of his former boss, then-Socialist President François Hollande, Macron has sought to place himself at the center of European political decision-making – particularly since Brexit. The core leader is former German Prime Minister Merkel in 2021.
Macron promotes closer political and economic integration of the EU, promotes the concepts of European sovereignty, economic security and competitiveness, and promotes a more integrated and autonomous European defense strategy Advocate for a “real European army”.
He is credited with creating the European Political Community, which brought together leaders from the region’s 50 countries to discuss common challenges and coordinate joint responses. Macron is also a staunch supporter of Ukraine, putting pressure on a seemingly more reluctant Germany and other NATO members to supply Western weapons to Kiev to counter Russia.
He even raised the possibility of French troops providing assistance on the ground, which, although controversial, went beyond what other allies had promised.
French President Emmanuel Macron and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky react after signing an agreement at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, on February 16, 2024.
Pool | via Reuters
Only time will tell how France’s politics shape up in the coming months, but the country is likely to endure weeks of political wrangling and potential gridlock as left-wing factions prepare to lead and appoint a new government. Serve as Prime Minister.
Although the decision rests with Macron, he may face pressure to elect the prime minister from the left-wing bloc, which won the most seats in the vote. He may even face pressure to elect Hollande, who is a strong candidate running for the National Population Party.
Macron has so far rejected the resignation of current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal and on Monday asked him to stay in office “to ensure the stability of the country”.
Ludovic Subran, chief economist at Allianz Group, told CNBC on Monday that political instability in France, the euro zone’s second-largest economy after Germany, comes at a bad time in the global political cycle. . Subran stressed that Macron’s alliance with the future prime minister is crucial.
“France is not That It’s weak right now, but it’s not great because we’re in a statecraft situation with the United States and China, and imagine what would happen in November if (Republican presidential candidate Donald) Trump was re-elected – we would be affected by Tested and tested again and again,” Subran told CNBC’s Charlotte Reid in Paris.
“I think it’s very important that Macron ensures that he is aligned with the prime minister before he says anything in Brussels or Strasbourg,“ Subran said. “He must ensure that there are minimal differences between him and the prime minister when it comes to international issues such as Russia, trade, industrial policy and more flexible fiscal policies for France and other European member states. “
When it comes to Macron’s standing in Europe, Subran said it is now “hard for him to preach and sow the seeds of grand plans for Europe” when his performance at home is weak.
He added: “If (national rally leader Marine) Le Pen runs for power in 2027, it will be a very sordid legacy.”
mixed heritage
While Macron may be praised in some quarters for his pro-European, pro-business and pro-trade approach in office, his legacy at home may be more complicated after this snap election – a decision that many People regard it as a strategic misjudgment. The reason for this is Macron’s perceived lack of understanding of voter sentiment and, some say, his perceived arrogance.
This is a criticism he often faces, as well as accusations that he cannot understand the daily concerns of many French citizens, especially those who live outside major urban centres.
Large-scale protest movements such as the “yellow vest” actions that emerged in 2018 were largely triggered by anger among large segments of the population over rising fuel and living costs and economic inequality, as well as what they saw as an elitism out of touch with reality. .
A police car sprays water cannon at protesters during anti-government demonstrations in Paris on January 26, 2019.
Noor Photos | Noor Photos | Getty Images
The rise of the far-right National Rally party also reflects voters’ concerns (rightly or wrongly) about immigration and what many supporters see as the erosion of French identity and culture.
His decision to call early elections in June, after his centrist Ennahda party suffered a crushing defeat in European parliamentary elections, was widely seen as a high-stakes gamble. A French political scientist told CNBC that the move has yet to pay off and France’s uncertain political future could unsettle France’s European partners.
“Imagine the EU, international partners and France’s allies. What would they think (of deciding to call early elections)?” Philippe Mallier, professor of French and European politics at University College London, said ahead of Sunday’s final round of elections.
“They must be thinking, ‘What an amateur. What a mistake. What a mess.'” It’s a mess and it’s affecting us all now, because if France can’t be a reliable partner to the EU on the big issues of the world … people won’t forget that it is Created by Macron.
French President Emmanuel Macron reviews troops who will participate in the Bastille Day military parade on July 2, 2024 in Paris, France.
Aurelien Morissad | Aurelien Morissad via Reuters
He told CNBC that in France, most people believe that, in plain English, Macron has brought about serious political chaos.
“Everyone in France today, absolutely everyone – I haven’t heard or seen anyone say this is a good idea – everyone is saying this is a big mistake. It’s an unnecessary gamble, Seriously, seriously counterproductive.
“As far as political missteps go. I’d probably give it a 10 out of 10,” Marière said.
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