Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and U.S. President Trump hold a joint press conference in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, DC, Thursday, June 7, 2018.
Cherish May | Noor Photos | Getty Images
Pesek said the Japanese government is “pretty sure Biden has it all under control.” However, with the recent turmoil in Biden’s party, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party is now reassessing the possibility of a “Trump 2.0 presidency.”
“I think the problem with Trump is, he’s very transactional, he’s not very predictable. He’s not very loyal in terms of relationships anywhere. Let alone Asia. If you’re Japan, they’re going to be thinking about the future Knowing, ‘This could happen.’” It’s been a fascinating few years for us. “Pesek said.
collateral damage
Pesek said Trump’s presidency is worrying for Tokyo because Japan suffered “collateral damage” during his first term.
“In many ways, a lot of his trade war policies were aimed at China, but the Japanese economy took a big hit during that period.
Trump has vowed that if he becomes president, he will impose a 10% tariff on global imports and a 60% tariff on China.
UK based papers Center for Economic Policy Research 2019 The study found that Japanese multinational companies’ operations in China have been affected by the trade war, especially Chinese subsidiaries that rely heavily on trade with North America.
“This causes their share prices to fall. This effect is amplified when Chinese subsidiaries are more integrated into the value chain of multinational companies, that is, if their share of imports from Japan is higher,” CEPR said.
“Trump has talked about 60% tariffs on Japanese goods. He’s talked about 100% tariffs on auto imports. Will that include Japanese automakers? So there’s a lot of uncertainty right now about what the next five years are going to look like. “Pesek said.
“Now Japan has to start over in many ways and at least start preparing for a Trump 2.0 presidency, and that’s not going well (in Tokyo).”
military agreement
Japan will also be concerned about the prospects for regional security during Trump’s second term as president, as well as issues such as housing for U.S. troops under the U.S.-Japan Mutual Defense Agreement.
Pesek said Trump was trying to “essentially crush Japan in order to obtain protection money to maintain U.S. troops.” In 2019, Trump asked Japan to Pay $8 billion to maintain U.S. troops stationed in the country.
According to this clause 1960 U.S.-Japan Mutual Defense Agreementthis America agrees “During the term of this agreement, Japan shall bear all expenses related to the maintenance of the United States Armed Forces in Japan, at no cost to Japan,” excluding certain specific costs that Japan will bear, such as facilities required to hand over U.S. forces.
National security issues are Japan’s top concern.
“The idea that Trump will abandon aid to Ukraine will certainly have repercussions in Asia,” Pesek said.
That would raise questions about the U.S.’s willingness to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.
Despite the US policy of “strategic ambiguity” regarding its defense commitments to the island, Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 “Any effort to determine Taiwan’s future through other than peaceful means… would cause serious concern to the United States,” the statement said.
Pesek said that while Japan does not have offensive troops, Tokyo will face pressure to aid Taiwan and whether Trump will do so is uncertain.
In addition, Trump’s relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un also led him to take measures that are contrary to Japan’s national security, Pesek said. For example, Trump may invite Kim Jong Un to a White House summit during his second term, which would be a “disaster” for Japan and South Korea.
By then, both Japan and South Korea may turn to developing nuclear weapons, which would “shake the region in a very, very significant way.”
Currently, Japan is committed to “Three non-nuclear principles“, excludes the production, possession or introduction of nuclear weapons, while South Korea agrees not to develop its own nuclear weapons by 2023 In exchange for the deployment of U.S. nuclear submarines in the country.
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