On July 7, 2024, French President Emmanuel Macron walked out of a polling station decorated with curtains in the colors of the French flag and went to a polling station in Le Touquet (Le Touquet) in northern France to participate in the second round of the French legislative election.
Mohammad Badla | AFP | Getty Images
French President Macron broke his silence on the political earthquake that occurred in France last weekend and called on mainstream political parties to form a coalition government.
in an open letter to regional newspapers On Wednesday, Macron said “no one won” the parliamentary election and called on mainstream parties with “republican values” to form a governing coalition.
“Let us hope that our political leaders will show a sense of harmony and reconciliation for your benefit and the benefit of the country,” he wrote, according to a CNBC translation.
“I will decide on the appointment of the prime minister based on these principles.”
France’s left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front (NFP), won the most seats in Sunday’s second round of voting, defeating the far-right National Rally, which had won the first round.
With only 180 seats, the NFP failed to gain an absolute majority of 289 out of the 577 seats in France’s lower house, the National Assembly. Macron’s centrist “Solidarity” bloc came second in the vote with 163 seats, with RN and its allies winning 143 seats.
France has an unfamiliar situation with a hung parliament, with left, center and right parties now competing to form coalitions and a viable coalition government.
This will not be an easy task, as the political blocs participating in the snap election are made up of a range of parties with different ideological positions – for example, the NFP includes the more radical anti-capitalist French Independiente and the more radical French Communist Party .
Jean-Luc Mélenchon – leader of the NFP’s largest party, the far-left French Insubordination party – called on Macron earlier this week to allow the group to form a government, saying the French president should accept their choice for prime minister. The NFP has yet to agree on a potential candidate for the position.
French presidents traditionally choose the prime minister from the party that wins the most votes in parliamentary elections, but they are not obliged to do so. They can reject a party’s nomination if it does not have enough seats to form a stable government.
In his letter, Macron expressed his hope that a party with “republican values” (representing more centrist parties rather than far-left or far-right factions) would lead the government.
What might be the next step?
Analysts say a minority centre-right government is France’s new base-case scenario after Macron sent smoke signals.
Mujtaba Rahman and Anna-Carina Hamker of Eurasia Group wrote in a note Wednesday.
They give a 55% chance of success for such a centrist minority coalition, consisting of Macron’s Ensemble (“Together”) group and the centre-right Les Republicains (LR, with 66 seats) plus up to six centrist independents composition.
On July 7, 2024, French President Emmanuel Macron left after voting for the second round of France’s legislative election at a polling station in Le Touquet, northern France.
Ludovic Marin | AFP | Getty Images
Analysts noted that such a potential minority coalition would have around 235 seats among its electorate, “far short of a majority but with the 250 seats that Macron’s government will uneasily survive two years after the 2022 presidential and parliamentary elections.” Not too far apart.”
“It is clear that Macron has no intention of appointing a left-wing minority government. His intention seems to be to buy time, hoping that French politicians will eventually be forced to ‘go to Belgium or the Netherlands’ and accept the fact that a divided parliament demands compromises and alliances,” Lage Mann and Hamke added.
Antonio Barroso, deputy director of research at consultancy Teneo, said the prospect of a centrist-led minority government was not a “very realistic” possibility at this stage.
“Together is deeply divided, with MPs (legislators) from the more progressive wing of the coalition opposed to forming a government with LR. In addition, many LR MPs are unwilling to reach an agreement with Together,” he said in a report on Wednesday.
He added that a no-confidence motion supported by France’s Insurgent Party and the National Rally could also easily topple the Together-LR coalition government.
As the chances of one of the left-wing candidates entering the prime minister’s office appeared to diminish on Wednesday, Macron’s opponents harshly criticized the president’s comments.
France Unbowed’s Mélenchon described the letter as akin to a “presidential coup” and said on the X that “the people’s vote must be respected”.
Meanwhile, Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old leader of the national rally, criticized Macron for creating the political chaos France is now in.
Baldela blamed Macron for the political “paralysis” France is experiencing, commenting in an X update translated by CNBC that the French president’s “current message is: ‘solve the problem.’ Irresponsible!”
—CNBC’s Ruxandra Iordache contributed reporting.
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