Former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gestures during a rally for Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump in Glendale, Arizona, U.S., August 23, 2024.
Tsuyoshi Nakamura | Reuters
When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gave up his independence to run for the White House in August and endorsed Donald Trump, he laid out an election strategy that he said would boost Republican candidates Opportunities for people in winnable battleground states.
Kennedy, who spent much of the campaign campaigning for votes, announced on Aug. 23 that he would reverse course and remove his name from the ballot in swing states where Trump would have benefited from a tie with his deputy. A head-to-head showdown with President Kamala Harris.
“Our polls consistently show that if I stay on the ballot in battleground states, I’m likely to hand the election to the Democrats,” Kennedy said.
But Kennedy’s voting strategy didn’t go as planned.
Despite his efforts to withdraw his name from printed ballots, Kennedy remains stuck on ballots in North Carolina, Wisconsin and Michigan.
That significantly reduces the potential electoral momentum Trump could gain in those states as a result of Kennedy’s withdrawal.
Minor party candidates cannot drop out in Michigan. On Tuesday, a Michigan Court of Claims judge Refuse Kennedy’s challenge Subject to national decision.
The Wisconsin Elections Commission voted to keep Kennedy on the state’s ballot. North Carolina State Board of Elections Kennedy also filed a lawsuit to overturn a decision.
Kennedy’s losses in Wisconsin, North Carolina and Michigan were particularly significant because they were three of only five swing states. polling This suggests that Trump would have done better in a head-to-head matchup with Harris without Kennedy. The other two are Arizona and Penn State.
In the two remaining battleground states — Nevada and Georgia — polls suggest that Kennedy dropping out of the race could actually backfire on Trump as the field shrinks from six candidates to two , Trump’s overall lead will shrink.
So, with Kennedy still voting in Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin, Trump may not see the boost in support in those states that the newly formed Trump-Kennedy coalition hopes.
In this way, it seems that Kennedy’s withdrawal will completely help Trump in Arizona and Pennsylvania.
Kennedy also dropped out of the race in Florida, Texas and Ohio, even though all three states were considered safe bets for Trump this election cycle.
Kennedy’s endorsement could still play to Trump’s advantage in other ways, even if his attempts to expand the Republican electoral map have been lackluster.
In a contentious campaign, Kennedy built momentum by appealing to undecided voters who were no longer interested in mainstream candidates from either party. Trump now hopes Kennedy’s endorsement will bolster his appeal to voters.
“He could have gotten a lot of votes,” Trump said of Kennedy at a rally in Arizona in August.
“I think he’s going to have a huge impact on this campaign.”
With 63 days until Election Day, as of Tuesday afternoon, an RCP poll showed Harris leading Trump in the national showdown, 48.1 percent to 46.2 percent.
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