Global supply chains and trade have faced no shortage of challenges over the past few years. Factors ranging from Covid-19 pandemic disruptions to Red Sea tensions have pushed up freight rates and affected deliveries. Trade tensions have also resulted in tariffs and affected world trade in certain goods. Just this week, strikes at U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast ports threatened to disrupt global supply chains. Goldman Sachs said that in recent years geopolitical tensions have intensified and trade barriers have continued to rise. Investors in the logistics and shipping industries are concerned about the extent to which this will promote the deglobalization of trade and the “shortening” of supply chains. . “We believe that heightened geopolitical tensions in recent years have structurally increased supply chain complexity, whether through increased tariffs, non-tariffs, sanctions or physical barriers (such as Red Sea disruptions and Russian airspace closures),” the bank’s analysis said. the teacher wrote. Goldman Sachs noted that the market for companies in this area is driven by global trade volumes and so-called supply chain “complexity.” They added: “The impact on logistics and shipping companies across our global coverage has been slow and in some cases negative long-term earnings growth, and we believe this risk has impacted overall investor sentiment in the sector. But Goldman Sachs believes that while deglobalization may lead to lower profits, it also sees opportunities amid heightened supply chain vulnerabilities and increasing requirements for automation and digitization, sourcing from multiple countries. , customs and other hurdles are increasing, which will only create more jobs and profit opportunities for logistics companies. Goldman Sachs said that there are still “well-positioned” companies in the field. It believes some stocks could benefit from greater supply chain “complexity.” Goldman Sachs said freight forwarders such as DSV, DHL Forwarding and Kuehne+Nagel are “well-positioned to help clients navigate higher complexity and shocks.” Goldman Sachs said it could offer a combination of sea and air freight solutions to “response to short-term crises” and meet demand for cargo using less than one container, allowing customers to save money amid higher shipping costs. Express shipping companies such as DHL, Fedex and UPS are likely to benefit from more frequent supply chain disruptions as they increase demand for faster international shipping and air cargo space, the bank added. Goldman Sachs said container shipping companies such as Cosco, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are less directly affected by higher supply chain complexity. But Maersk has already taken the lead – by pursuing a strategy of combining shipping with “more advanced” logistics services. “Recent disruptions have led to market tightening, favoring shipping lines, although supply and demand dynamics depend on the type of disruption, and some of these events could also have a negative impact,” Goldman Sachs said. —CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
