On May 4, a ship identified as the “Chinese Maritime Militia” by the Philippine Coast Guard (back right) and a Chinese Coast Guard ship (front right) sailed near the Unaiza chartered by the Philippine military to execute Supply mission at Second Thomas Shoal.
Jam Starossa | AFP | Getty Images
Experts have warned that some of the world’s busiest shipping lanes are at risk as tensions rise in the South China Sea.
Conflicts in the hotly contested South China Sea have escalated in recent months.
With Beijing claiming nearly the entire sea and several other countries having overlapping claims, multiple clashes have broken out between China, the Philippines and Vietnam, raising concerns about incidents that could disrupt global trade.
Marko Papic, chief global geomacro strategist at BCA Research, said that due to the importance of the South China Sea waterway to international trade, these developments in the South China Sea should be watched by global markets and supply chains.
“The South China Sea is the most valuable waterway in the world in terms of the value of trade that passes through it,” Papik told CNBC, noting that conflicts there pose clear risks to global shipping.
Papik added that the sea route is particularly important for commodities and inputs reaching China by sea, while Chinese manufactured goods are shipped to the rest of the world via this route.
The conflict in the region gradually attracted the attention of governments around the world, including the United States, which signed a mutual defense treaty with the Philippines.
CNBC was unable to track data on the exact scale of South China Sea trade. However, CSIS China Power Project It is estimated that the trade volume of the South China Sea reached US$3.4 trillion in 2016, accounting for 21% of global trade volume.
At the same time, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development estimates that 60% of maritime trade passes through Asia, with the South China Sea carrying one-third of global shipping traffic that year.
Tensions rise
The South China Sea is located in the western Pacific between China, Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Cambodia, many of which dispute claims to the waters.
However, China, in particular, claims almost the entire South China Sea as its “sovereignty”.Nine-Dash Line,” rejecting a 2016 ruling by the International Court of Arbitration in The Hague, Netherlands, which found that Beijing’s claims had no legal or historical basis.
This has led to escalating friction with many of China’s neighbors, who believe the country’s coast guard has intruded into their exclusive economic zones.
Earlier this month, the Philippines Accused of Chinese missile boats Pursuing Philippine ships and firing lasers at patrol aircraft near the disputed Half Moon Reef. This follows other clashes, including ship collisions, water cannons and injuries to Filipino sailors, according to Philippine officials.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. pressing issues A regional summit on Thursday called for speeding up negotiations on a code of conduct in the South China Sea while accusing Beijing of harassment and intimidation.
At the same time, Vietnam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs also recently condemned China’s actions in the South China Sea, accusing Chinese ships of “violent attack“On a Vietnamese fishing boat.
Richard Heydarian, policy advisor and senior lecturer in international affairs at the University of the Philippines, said: “We have seen in the past few weeks rising tensions not only between China and the Philippines, but also with Vietnam. The situation is also intensifying.
“I think it’s only a matter of time before more and more ASEAN countries speak out, and it’s only a matter of time before we see more disturbing conflicts,” he added.
Salami sliced with bulldozer
Still, while experts say geopolitical risks in the South China Sea are increasing, they add that there are still many reasons for everyone involved to avoid a larger conflict.
In asserting its claims, China is said to have used what analysts call “grey zone” tactics, commonly known as coercive actions that fall outside of armed conflict but go beyond normal diplomatic activity.
“The gray zone strategy, while troubling, is an example of China’s desire to carve a path through the South China Sea rather than bulldoze it,” Heydarian said.
At the same time, shipping through the South China Sea also benefits the economies of countries involved in the conflict.
If China starts engaging in activities that affect freedom of navigation, such as declaring parts of the South China Sea off-limits to civilian shipping, we may see greater U.S. involvement, said Abdul Jacob, a Southeast Asia researcher at the Lowy Institute.
“However, at this moment, no party, including China, wants the situation to escalate into a full-scale military conflict,” he added.
The Chinese Embassy in Singapore did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
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