Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris appear on screen during a debate viewing party at the Cameo Art House Theater on September 10, 2024 in Fayetteville, North Carolina.
Alison Joyce | Bloomberg | Getty Images
European politicians and policymakers are busy preparing No matter who becomes the next leader of the White House after next week’s election, the United States will become more protectionist.
The presidential race remains close as it enters its final days, with polls consistently showing Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in a close race in key battleground states and nationally.
“No matter who wins, it will be ‘America First,'” a senior European diplomat told CNBC last week, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the transatlantic relationship.
“Americans’ main concern is the economy, and the answer has to be more economic nationalism – I don’t agree with that, but I don’t see a way around it,” the senior diplomat who attended the meeting said. Secret talks between EU leaders.
German Finance Minister Christian Lindner told CNBC on Friday that Germany could suffer retaliation if the United States and the European Union launch a trade war.
“In this case, we need to use diplomacy to convince those in the White House that a trade conflict with the EU is not in the best interests of the United States,” he told the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting in Washington, D.C.
Trade with the United States is extremely important to European countries. The European Union and the United States have The world’s largest bilateral trade and investment relationshipIn 2021, the figure reached a record high of 1.2 trillion euros ($1.29 trillion), according to the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm.
To some extent, Harris is seen as likely to continue the policies of now-President Joe Biden, which from an economic perspective will be best remembered in Europe through the Inflation Reduction Act – a climate change initiative. and energy policy, sweeping US legislation totaling $369 billion. The IRA unnerved many European leaders because of its protectionist nature.
Under a Republican president, “America First” policies are likely to have a greater impact on the European economy. Trump’s threat to impose sweeping additional tariffs of 10% on European products could put pressure on EU exporters, which could erode confidence among EU exporters, according to Goldman Sachs data. EUR Up to 10%.
Trump’s first term in the White House has been a challenging time for some European leaders, who have expressed dislike for the former president’s style and confrontational tone. The two countries often have different views on trade, defense and technology.
The senior diplomat, who asked not to be named, also told CNBC: “Trump can’t surprise us anymore, we know how to deal with it, we have dealt with him before.”
Another EU official, who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the relationship with the United States, told CNBC: “There is no panic. We are very pragmatic, but of course we have to be prepared for both scenarios.”
The official added that the European Commission was formulating “bold” moves no matter who becomes the next president.
CNBC reported in May 2023 that European officials were already quietly preparing for Trump’s possible return. That means a focus on reducing dependence on the United States and China – something EU leaders continue to strive for.
In a statement in October, the 27 EU heads of state called for “strengthening the EU’s competitiveness, enhancing economic flexibility, ensuring industrial revival and fully realizing the potential of the single market.”
“This highlights the urgency for effective action,” the statement added.
Champagne celebration?
Beyond the European institutions in Brussels, there are also some differences in EU capitals over the US presidency. Leaders have made mixed comments about the possibility of Trump being re-elected as president.
prime minister of hungary Viktor Orban reportedly told reporters in Brussels This month, if Trump returns to the White House, he will open “a few bottles of champagne.” Two days after U.S. voters go to the polls, European Union leaders are expected to meet in the Hungarian capital Budapest and discuss the election results, possibly over dinner.
A third EU official, who spoke on condition of anonymity and will be attending the meeting in Budapest, told CNBC: “If Trump wins, I will definitely not celebrate.” The official added that the US election was “very worrying” , because “there are only 200 votes left in (swing state) Pennsylvania.”
The official added that whatever the outcome was, “it would not be as shocking as last time, and Europe has since increased its strategic autonomy and defense spending.”
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