Movie posters for “Wicked,” “Warrior II” and “Moana 2.”
Source: Universal Pictures (left), Paramount (center) and Disney (right)
Three major Hollywood blockbusters will duke it out at the box office in November, each vying for audiences’ attention, box office revenue and screen time on theaters’ biggest screens.
universal“The Villain” Paramountof Gladiator II and disney‘s “Moana 2” was released within five days of Thanksgiving. All three movies are expected to thrive at the box office both during their release and throughout the rest of the year.
Yet as moviegoers become more discerning about how they spend their money and which movies they get off the couch to see, box office analysts want to know which blockbusters will benefit the most from premium ticket sales.
Toward a premium
Premium large format screens (often called PLF) enhance the viewing experience, e.g. grand art museum, DolbyScreen X and 4DX – higher ticket prices. Physical screens are often larger than traditional movie screens, or have auditoriums with higher-quality sound systems or seating options.
“Audiences gravitate to the biggest, best, most immersive auditoriums,” said Shawn Robbins, director of analytics for Fandango’s film division and founder and owner of Box Office Theory. “They are the first to sell out high-demand movies and the first to sell out. Sales on the day of the screening tend to slow or spread into the following days as those screens and the best seats are filled instead of moving to less attractive, non-premium traditional theaters.
On October 10, 2018, the atmosphere was warm at the Imax private screening of the movie “First Man” held at the Imax AMC Theater in New York City.
Lars Nikki | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images
According to Comscore, more than 950 theaters in North America are now equipped with these PLF screens, a 33.7% increase from five years ago. These screens account for 9.1% of the domestic box office, which will be approximately $600 million in 2024.
“The importance of PLF as a percentage of annual box office growth over the past few years cannot be overstated,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “Notably, post-pandemic, moviegoers are beginning to gravitate toward these higher-cost fares. Cinema.”
According to Steve Buck of movie data company EntTelligence, premium tickets now average about $16.71 each, up 8% since the company first started reporting these numbers in 2021. Meanwhile, standard tickets are about $11.82 each, a 7.4% increase from 2021 prices.
“Premium formats are a significant draw for moviegoers looking for the best immersive experience, with these films typically accounting for more than a third of blockbuster opening weekend traffic,” Barker said.
Recognizing the growing importance of these types of theaters, the National Association of Theater Owners revealed in September that eight of North America’s largest theater chains would Investment of over US$2.2 billion Modernize and upgrade cinemas. The investment will be used to upgrade laser projectors, immersive sound systems and seating updates, as well as enhance concession offerings and add family entertainment options such as bowling and arcades.
PLF revenue still accounts for only a small portion of total box office, with most audiences watching movies on traditional digital screens. However, PLF’s box office has grown by 33% in just five years, which is no small thing.
Blockbusters on the biggest screen
The films that benefit most from PLF ticket sales are Hollywood’s biggest blockbusters.
Audiences expect explosive action and dazzling spectacle in state-of-the-art venues. That’s why movies like Universal’s “Oppenheimer,” Disney’s “Avatar: Waterfall” and Warner Bros. “Dune” and “Dune: Part 2” accounted for a large portion of PLF’s box office during their theatrical run.
those movies are It’s even shot with special cameras with the express purpose of being seen on a high-quality large format screen. In fact, fans of “Oppenheimer” and “Dune: Part II” waited days or even weeks at sold-out IMAX theaters to see the film.
On July 29, 2023, the Oppenheimer movie advertising board in Times Square, New York.
Adam Jeffery | CNBC
As a result, studios are betting big on franchise movies. Part of the reason is that in the wake of the pandemic, audiences have come forward to claim existing intellectual property rights—see “Deadpool and Wolverine,” “Inside Out 2,” “Despicable Me 4,” “Dune: Part II” “, “Twister” and “Beetlejuice” dominate the 2024 box office tops.
That’s one reason why next year the big six studios – Universal, Disney, Warner Bros., Paramount, Sony and Lionsgate – will have 50% to 70% of their movies tied to existing IP.
That’s why the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday can be tricky. Wicked and Gladiator II will debut on November 22nd and will likely split the available PLF locations. A few months after “Moana 2” was scheduled to be released on November 27, the two movies chose to withdraw from the Thanksgiving battle.
However, with the entry of Moana 2, these premium screen divisions will change. When a movie is released, studios and movie theater operators reach an agreement that specifies how many theaters it will show in, how often it will be shown, and what type of screens it will be shown on. These arrangements will change as new movies are released. It is unclear how the PLF screen will be divided after the three movies are released simultaneously.
“During certain periods of the calendar, releases will be slower than others, allowing one or two films to dominate high-end screens, but in periods when competition for top films is fierce, successful or potentially successful films may be better at the box office. “That’s what happened during the ‘Bappenheimer’ craze last year, when Oppenheimer controlled IMAX screens for a period of time until ‘Barbie’ was finally able to expand there a few weeks after its release. format.”
Many are wondering whether “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” have the potential to repeat the box-office highs of the 2023 double-release “Bappenheimer.” Warner Brothers’ “Barbie” opens the same weekend as Universal Pictures’ “Oppenheimer.”
Currently, box office analysts have a broad understanding of how Wicked will perform during its domestic opening weekend. NRG, a leading entertainment and technology research firm, forecast revenue of a conservative $85 million. Meanwhile, others speculate that the first film in the planned duology could top $100 million, taking in as much as $150 million in its first three days in theaters.
The expected divide has emerged as Hollywood has struggled to market and monetize movie musicals in recent years, but fan-favorite IP films have also performed well. Since “Wicked” is based on one of Broadway’s most popular musicals, box office analysts are finding it difficult to predict where it will open.
Meanwhile, “Gladiator II” is expected to gross between $60 million and $80 million over the same weekend. “Moana 2” has set a pre-sale box office record for an animated feature film in 2024, and is expected to gross more than $100 million in its five-day domestic premiere.
“However, the reputation of the movie itself can still ultimately be the driving force behind consumers choosing to spend money on movie tickets and popcorn,” Robbins said. “After a strong initial response and premium screen presence upon release, certain films transcend format preferences and some casual viewers will be persuaded to purchase tickets regardless of format.”
Revealed: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC. NBCUniversal is the publisher of “Wicked,” “Oppenheimer,” “Despicable Me 4” and “Twister,” and owns Fandango.
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