Democratic presidential candidate and US Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican presidential candidate and former US President Trump.
Scott Olson | Bill Pugliano | Getty Images
The world is focused on the U.S. presidential election as voters head to the polls on Tuesday, but the vote is even more important for some countries.
For some countries, voting can make the difference between war and peace, stability and instability, prosperity or economic weakness. For Ukraine, the situation is even more obvious, and its territorial integrity may even be threatened.
Here, we take a look at the countries that win and lose the most in elections no matter who wins the White House, whether it’s Republican former President Trump or Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.
China
China is undoubtedly America’s biggest economic competitor, and no matter who becomes the next U.S. president, hostility between the two sides shows no sign of abating.
Trump has threatened to restart the trade war that began during his first term, when he imposed tariffs worth $250 billion on Chinese imports. Trump argued that the measure was a way to reduce the trade deficit with China and increase U.S. jobs and competitiveness.
On July 7, 2017, Chinese President Xi Jinping and then US President Trump held a working meeting on the first day of the G20 Summit in Hamburg, northern Germany.
Patrick Stolarz | AFP | Getty Images
Russia and Ukraine
Ukraine will be watching the election closely, as will Moscow, as the war with Russia drags on and Kiev relies heavily on foreign military aid to sustain the fighting.
It is widely believed that the Trump administration and hard-line Republicans will become more hostile to providing more military aid to Ukraine, severely inhibiting its ability to continue to fight back against Russia.
On August 19, 2024, as the Russian-Ukrainian war continued in the direction of Toletsk, Ukraine, Ukrainian soldiers prepared a vehicle suitable for launching helicopter shells.
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images
Trump also boasted that if elected he could end the war within 24 hours and suggested he would stop funding Ukraine to force a negotiated settlement with Russia. This could mean giving up nearly 20% of the territory in the south and east currently occupied by Russian forces.
However, choosing to continue fighting without U.S. support could mean Ukraine loses more land. Therefore, the U.S. election in Ukraine is an existential election.
“The U.S. election is likely to force the Ukrainians to take action, as a Trump victory would immediately lead to a change in U.S. policy direction and put more direct pressure on negotiations in Kyiv. This means the Ukrainians may soon have to decide whether they want to or break away from their most important military backer,” Ian Bremmer, founder and president of Eurasia Group, said in emailed comments on Monday.
On September 20, 2019, Russian President Vladimir Putin supervised a military exercise named “Center-2019” at the Donguz shooting range in the Orenburg region of Russia.
Alexey Nikolsky | Sputnik | Alexey Nikolsky | Kremlin (Reuters)
Even a Kyiv-friendly government under Harris, which has pledged continued support for the war-torn country, may struggle to provide more financial support to Ukraine, depending on which party dominates Congress.
Harris said her future administration would support Ukraine “as long as needed,” but neither she nor Washington clearly defined what that statement meant, what a victory for Ukraine would look like, or whether there would be limits on U.S. aid.
israel and iran
The Middle East, however, is a region where Trump and Harris’ foreign policy stances are likely to be more aligned – with both candidates pledging continued U.S. support for Israel as it pursues Iranian proxies, militant groups Hamas and the like in Gaza and Lebanon respectively. Hezbollah. It also promotes an end to the conflict as soon as possible.
Iran has threatened to retaliate against Israel for last month’s massive missile strikes on military installations in the country, meaning a cycle of tit-for-tat between the adversaries is likely to continue into the fall.
Trump has recently cast himself as a “protector” of Israel, touting his past support for Israel at the Israel-U.S. Council summit in September and suggesting Israel would face “total destruction” if he was not elected, but he The statement has not been confirmed. He also caused a stir by telling the audience that “anyone who is Jewish, anyone who loves Jews, loves Israel, is a fool if he votes Democratic.”
Republican presidential candidate former U.S. President Trump speaks at the American Council for Israel National Summit at the Hilton Hotel in Washington, D.C., September 19, 2024.
Kevin Dickey | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Trump broke with decades of American tradition and formally recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, winning the support of Israel during his first term. He also won further praise by formally recognizing the country’s disputed Golan Heights region as Israeli sovereignty.
A poll conducted last week israel democracy institute The study found that nearly 65% thought Trump would be more in line with Israel’s interests, far higher than the 13% who thought Harris would be better. Just over 15% said there was no difference between the two candidates, while 7% said they didn’t know.
Harris once Accused of taking ambivalent stance towards Israel She criticized the country’s military strategy, calling the loss of life in Gaza last year “devastating” and “heartbreaking”.
Harris seeks to dispel Republicans’ portrayal of her as anti-Israel, august said She said she would “always uphold Israel’s right to defend itself and I will always ensure Israel’s ability to defend itself” and condemned Hamas’s attack on October 7 last year.
As for Iran, Regional and Western officials told Reuters they believed a Trump presidency would be bad news for TehranTrump is likely to give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the green light to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities – a move that Biden vetoed – carry out targeted assassinations and do more by targeting Iran’s oil industry Heavy sanctions to re-implement his “maximum pressure policy.”
At the same time, it is believed that if Harris is elected, she will be more likely to continue Biden’s foreign policy stance in order to reduce tensions. She herself said in late October that her message to Iran in the wake of recent Israeli attacks was “not to respond” and that “the situation in the region must de-escalate”.
On October 1, 2024, U.S. Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris gave a speech after Iran fired about 200 missiles at Israel.
Brendan Smirovsky | AFP | Getty Images
Ambassador Mitchell B. Rice, a distinguished fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank, commented on Monday that the Harris administration would not stray too far from its current course.
“We don’t know her worldview, her policy preferences, or even her choices for senior Cabinet positions. My best guess is that President Harris will largely continue Joe Biden’s foreign policy, prioritizing cooperation with good relationships with allies and friends and a strong emphasis on diplomacy,” Rice said.
“What will a Trump second term look like? Here, we have a better idea. We already know that Trump sees the world more from a personal and transactional perspective than from a strategic perspective.
He is skeptical of America’s commitment to allies and sending U.S. troops overseas—and he is less committed than previous presidents to America’s traditional role in building and leading the liberal international order that has given us brought so much peace and prosperity since World War II,” Rice noted.
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