Which stocks Wall Street expects to benefit under Trump or Harris | Wilnesh News
Election Day is here, and investors are nervous. The campaign and congressional battle between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump has entered its final moments. The results will have a significant impact on many aspects of the market, including setting policies that could hurt or boost different industries, as well as tax and spending plans that impact interest rates and the direction of the dollar. “None of the election results at this point would surprise us,” TD Cowen Washington policy strategist Paul Gallant wrote in a report last week. “The battleground states are all within the margin of error.” History, Gallant wrote For the first time, the House and Senate can switch to opposing parties in a single election, which is perfect for 2024. “Generally speaking, a Trump win is seen as a boon to the financial industry because of the potential for looser regulation of companies in the sector. Sex is greater. Traditional oil and gas companies may also benefit during a second Trump presidency. Clean energy stocks are expected to get a boost during Harris’s term as the vice president is likely to maintain the Inflation Reduction Act. The provision of the IRA, which sparked America’s clean energy boom, may be repealed by Trump. As for the broader market, Goldman Sachs analyzed how the S&P 500 might trade based on the results. In the event of a Republican sweep, the bank expects the S&P 500 to rise 3%. However, a Democratic sweep would trigger a 3% drop in the benchmark index. Smaller stocks are also seen as beneficiaries of a Trump victory. CNBC Pro has been breaking down which stocks might do well in different election scenarios and how the market would react, based on Wall Street research and interviews with analysts and investors. Here’s what we found in one place: Strategas Research’s Trump and Harris Baskets recently compiled two stock baskets. One is made up of stocks that benefit if Harris wins; the other is made up of stocks that benefit if Harris wins. The other will do well during Trump’s second term as president. “We continue to believe this is the most investment-worthy election of our lifetimes,” policy analyst Daniel Clifton wrote in a recent note to clients. “The difference between Trump and Harris is the biggest we’ve ever seen.” In Trump’s basket: Axon Enterprise Bank of America Cleveland-Cliffs Strategas points to these stocks as Trump beneficiaries, citing candidate’s A protectionist stance, including higher tariffs on Chinese steel and the possibility of deregulation of the financial sector. Harris, by contrast, is unlikely to impose higher tariffs, which could boost companies like Best Buy that rely on imported goods. Strategas also sees Harris’ victory as a boon for clean energy companies. In the Harris basket are: Ford Motor Best Buy NextEra Energy AXON Mountain AXON 2024 Year-to-Date For more, check out our full coverage. UBS sees a Harris win as a tactical negative, but some winners will emerge UBS strategist Andrew Garthwaite noted that a Trump win would be a net positive for stocks, while a Harris win would weigh on stocks in the short term. . That said, in either case, there will be some individual winners. Garthwaite said financial services and manufacturing stocks will do well under Trump, while some technology and solar stocks will do better under Harris. Some of the stocks in the UBS Trump basket are Goldman Sachs and Cleveland-Cliffs. Apple and Enphase Energy are part of the bank’s Harris basket. For more information, check out our full story. Energy Industry One of the industries that could experience significant post-election disruption is energy, especially if Trump wins. If Harris wins, she is expected to keep the Inflation Cut Act, which promotes the transition to renewable energy. However, the IRA passed without Republican support — and would likely be repealed if Trump wins. To be sure, the latter scenario depends on Republican majorities in both the House and Senate. Some stocks and assets to watch: SolarEdge Technologies Enphase Energy First Solar Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) TAN mountain TAN year-to-date On the traditional energy side, investors should keep an eye on giants ExxonMobil and Chevron. For more information, check out our story. Retail Stocks Vulnerable to Tariffs Since many retail stocks rely on imports from China, retail stocks could be hit by rising tariffs. “Trump’s tariff rhetoric has caused concern among many consumers. He has proposed tariffs of 10-20% on most imported products, and we have heard tariffs on China are as high as over 60%. Harris’ policy is less clear, But it’s possible pricing is ultimately an offset, but there’s also a difference in the ability to deal with ripple effects from geopolitical tensions, with the election results being a key data point for most of the exposed names, Boruccio pointed out. Stocks like Target could struggle under tougher tariffs For more, see the full story. Trump-related stocks There are also stocks that stand to benefit directly from a Trump victory, including Trump Media. and technology companies. Trump Media, whose stock trades as DJT (also Trump’s initials), has more than doubled this year but has also come under pressure recently, plunging 28% in the past week. Polls showed he and Harris were deadlocked in Tuesday’s vote, but the stock has emerged as a proxy for Trump’s chances of winning the election, including mobile software and blockchain company Phunware and video popular with conservatives. Platform Rumble. DJT 1M Mountain DJT 1-mo Chart See full story for more. Don’t Forget Small Caps Small stocks are seen as potential major winners from the Trump presidency, given the former president’s willingness to loosen regulations and further lower corporate tax rates. . The group’s trading was somewhat tied to the odds of a Trump victory, although not to a greater extent than the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), which tracks the small-cap Russell 2000 index, in late June. The fund consolidated ahead of a recovery after the debate with President Joe Biden and Harris, with the IWM up more than 10% on the year through Tuesday afternoon. Morgan Stanley breaks down its top picks among small-cap stocks, including Planet Fitness, Cadence Bank and Viking Therapeutics, all rated overweight by the bank. Cryptocurrency trade Crypto has been at the forefront of this election. Trump expressed support for the industry during his campaign. During the Trump presidency, digital currencies such as Bitcoin were expected to reach new heights due to a more favorable regulatory regime. However, the Harris administration is not seen as supportive. Good news for cryptocurrencies. “There’s no question that the election is what’s driving price action,” Nic Puckrin, CEO and co-founder of cryptocurrency education website Coin Bureau, told CNBC Pro. “The market will take cues based on who wins the White House. Trump is widely seen as pro-cryptocurrency, but no matter who wins, Bitcoin is still poised to rise. Some stocks and ETFs to watch include Coinbase and the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT). Coinbase shares are up 12% year to date. IBIT, which launched earlier this year, is up 30% over the past three months. USD USD Will Be Worth It A key asset to watch, especially as the election results come in. However, UBS believes the dollar’s gains will be short-lived, Solita said: “While the dollar is likely to strengthen in the short term if Trump wins, regardless of the winner. We expect the dollar to depreciate over the medium term and recommend investors consider taking advantage of periods of strength to diversify dollar exposure into other G10 currencies. “Fundamentally, we believe the U.S. dollar is overvalued and its yield advantage relative to other currencies,” Maselli, UBS Wealth Management’s chief investment officer for the Americas, wrote in a note on Monday. Shrinking U.S. fiscal and current account deficits could put pressure on the dollar regardless of the winner. The financial sector could be the big winner. A Trump presidency could lead to deregulation of the financial services industry, which could lead to deregulation. Huge gains. However, a Harris win is expected to maintain current regulatory measures and potentially introduce new ones, wrote Chris Senyek, a strategist at Wolfe Research. From a U.S. post-election positioning perspective, financials are by far the biggest winner from Trump’s victory because of deregulation and higher interest rates/steeper yield curve, which is an area to watch, Wolf said. Some of the stocks that will benefit from Trump’s victory include Evercore and Lazard. Private equity giants KKR and Blackstone both rose more than 50%, while KKR and Blackstone rose 67% and 28% respectively.
