On January 1, 2024, a medical staff was taking care of a newborn at Dongfang Hospital in Lianyungang, China.
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Analysts say China’s efforts to boost its birth rate have yet to address the core reasons for its rapid decline.
Although the country The strict one-child policy has almost begun to be relaxed Ten years ago, birth rates continued to decline The number of newborns hits a record low of 9.02 million last year.
Analysis by financial services company Nomura shows that the number of newly registered marriages in the third quarter also plummeted by 25% compared with the same period last year, indicating that the total number of marriages for the whole year will fall to 6.4 million, the lowest level since 1979. Official data released this month.
Lauren said China’s policies so far have been less about trying to trigger a massive “baby boom” and more about “supporting families and making it easier for people who do want to have a second or third child.” , more affordable.” Johnston is an associate professor at the Center for China Studies at the University of Sydney.
She said the latest measures were “a small step on a long-term agenda”.
Chinese authorities High-level plans announced last month Grants and tax breaks are provided to families with children under 3 years old. Maternity leave extended to 158 days Starting from 98 days. Last year, the state doubled the child care tax deduction to 2,000 yuan ($280) per month.
China’s birth rate has been on a sharp downward trend since the government implemented the “one-child policy” across the country in 1980. lost more than half of the population By 2100, the decline was the largest of any country.
Harry Murphy Crews, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, said the “psychological hangover” from the one-child policy has lingered and “fundamentally changed the way young people think about family.” Slowing economic growth is also causing “young people to reconsider or delay plans to start a family,” he added.
“This is an extremely difficult task, and there is no magic bullet for increasing fertility,” Cruz said.
According to the World Bank, fertility rates (defined as the number of births per woman) China will be 1.2 in 2022below 1.7 in the United States, Benefit from more open immigration policies.
China’s share of the world’s live births is expected to fall from 8% in 2021 to about 3% in 2100, said Austin Schumacher, assistant professor of health indicator sciences at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
“Current research on various fertility policies shows only modest increases, and our projections suggest this will not be enough to reverse population decline,” Schumaker said. “However, as new innovations and research improve current efforts and develop With new efforts, it’s possible.”
An increasingly pressing factor for Chinese families is the uncertainty of income to raise children.
After decades of rapid expansion, China’s economy has slowed, weighed down by a real estate downturn. The crackdown on tutoring, gaming, finance and internet platform companies has also affected recruitment in industries once popular with fresh graduates.
China’s youth unemployment rate (measured by students aged 16 to 24 who are not in school) rose to a record high of 18.8% in August. It was slightly lower in September.
“The problem really is that people don’t have the confidence to make ends meet, let alone think about having enough money to raise their children,” said Sheana Yue, an economist at Oxford Economics.
Yue said “real” measures to increase income and reduce household living costs would “go a long way” in improving fertility sentiment in China.
National health authorities are trying to encourage businesses to support maternity leave this year, stressing State funds available to pay female employees’ wages Who gives birth.
The stress of city life
Scholars have generally noted the connection between the two urbanization and declining birth rates. In 2023, approximately 83% of Americans will live in cities; 65% in Chinaaccording to World Bank data. This is up from 19% in 1980, when the U.S. urbanization rate was 74%.
Darren Tay, head of country risk for BMI Asia Pacific, said “busy and stressful work schedules” in big cities often hinder marriage and parenthood. This could “diminish the impact of incentives to have children”.
Economists at Nomura Securities said that the proportion of China’s population aged 20 to 39 has dropped, indicating that the number of marriages will decrease in the future.
Economists say this could lead to fewer births in the coming years unless “the incentives for married couples change significantly”. They predict that Beijing may announce up to 500 billion yuan ($70 billion) in annual spending to promote fertility at its annual National People’s Congress meeting in March.
lack of incentives
Appropriate incentives to increase birth rates appear to be lacking, and some measures may even infringe on information that many societies consider private.
For example, some online posts this year claimed that local social workers in China were calling women indiscriminate names Ask them if they are pregnantand force them to obtain free folate.
The central government’s latest policy requires local authorities to budget for public childcare centers and relax restrictions on home loans for families with many children. This will require implementation by local authorities, many of which are in financial difficulty.
Xu Tianchen, a senior economist at the economic think tank, pointed out that previous policies to encourage childbirth were “inconsistent and inadequate” and depended on the financial situation of local governments and their willingness to prioritize these measures.
Xu said that to reverse the declining birth rate, China needs a “strong combination of direct fiscal incentives,” particularly housing subsidies and benefits.
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