Musk hugs Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on October 5, 2024.
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Elon Musk’s relationship with Donald Trump has fueled expectations that he may soften the U.S. president-elect’s policy stance toward Beijing, but experts warn against putting too much trust in the Tesla chief executive.
The billionaire is one of Trump’s biggest campaign donors and may reportedly receive cabinet or advisor Role in the White House.
In the run-up to the election, their relationship changes aroused Beijing’s interest Due to Musk’s close ties to China, his company has Teslaoperates a large “super factory”.
“In the past few months, people in China have been generally curious about whether Musk could become the new Kissinger and help broker a relationship between Washington and Beijing,” said Scott Kennedy, senior adviser on China business and economics and chairman of the board of trustees at the Strategy Center. Come to an agreement.
He added: “It’s hard to know whether this is a clever insight that could help prevent a breakdown in relations between the two countries, or whether it’s part of an unrealistic comfort scenario that the Chinese want to tell themselves.”
U.S. diplomat Henry Kissinger, who died last year, is credited with promoting the normalization of Sino-U.S. relations since his first visit to Beijing in July 1971.
Kissinger is deeply respected in China and continues to meet with Chinese leaders as an unofficial diplomat in an effort to warm relations between the two countries. Just months before Kissinger died in November 2023, he met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing in July 2023.
Hopefully Musk can fill this void The hole left by Kissinger As his contacts with senior Chinese officials grew, he founded Tesla in 2018 as China’s first wholly foreign-owned automaker.
During his last trip in April, the Tesla and SpaceX chief reportedly met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who viewed Tesla as an example of successful trade cooperation between Beijing and Washington. official media.
Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Relations at Renmin University of China, told CNBC that Musk is seen as a business person who understands both China and the United States.
Wang said that could allow him to help push for some flexibility or even the lifting of tough tariffs that Trump has threatened to impose on Chinese-made products. He hopes Musk’s work in manufacturing can lead to deals for Chinese companies to build factories in the United States
Musk has expressed concern about tensions between the two countries and criticized the Joe Biden administration when it raised tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to 100% earlier this year. The Biden administration has launched a series of policies aimed at bringing high-end technology manufacturers back to the United States, many of which Trump is expected to stick to.
Businessman, not diplomat
Wang Huiyao, founder of the China Research Center, a think tank in Beijing, said that to have a real impact on U.S. policy, one businessman, even the world’s richest, would not be enough to improve relations the way Kissinger once did.
Instead, Wang said, a group of prominent business and thought leaders, including Elon Musk, Apple’s Tim Cook and Blackstone’s Stephen Schwarzman, could serve as a “Kissinger group.”
He said they may not have the same impact as Kissinger, given the more complex current times, although they could help stabilize relations.
chef and Schwarzman They also regularly visit Chinese leaders, who Beijing often views as positive examples of China-U.S. business and trade relations.
Dewardric McNeal, managing director and senior policy analyst at Longview Global, told CNBC that while China does occasionally use influential Americans as unofficial conduits, it sees Musk as a modern Kissinger is a bit far-fetched.
For these “informal intermediaries,” the primary obligation is to shareholders, not the national interest, he said. subject to intense scrutiny.
McNeil said that during Trump’s first term, China had tried to establish “secret channels” with prominent American businessmen, including entrepreneur and real estate developer Steve Wynn, in an effort to influence policy.
These efforts appear to have had little impact on Trump’s China policy and have led the Justice Department to File a lawsuit The company sought to register Wynn as a foreign agent because of his alleged lobbying work on behalf of the Chinese government.
This time, Trump announced his intention to impose a blanket tariff of 10% to 20% on all imported products and impose additional tariffs of 60% to 100% on products imported from China.
“Musk may open some doors, but shrewd diplomacy is not going to open any doors,” McNeil said, adding that pinning diplomatic hopes on a figure whose primary allegiance is to his own business could be a sign of failure. Misjudgment.
“Musk’s unpredictability and strong, sometimes controversial views are not necessarily in the diplomatic or strategic interests of any one country.”
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