On November 27, 2024, Marine Le Pen, a member of the French far-right party National Rally (RN), was tried in a Paris court for alleged misappropriation of European public funds.
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The French government is in jeopardy with the far-right National Rally party, which threatens to overthrow Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government by the end of the year.
National rally figurehead Marine Le Pen said on Monday that talks with Barnier aimed at extracting concessions on France’s 2025 tax-hike budget bill had failed to produce changes that would have allowed her party to approve the government’s plans.
“We will see if today’s proposals are adopted, but nothing is certain,” Le Pen said in comments reported by The Associated Press on Monday.
She also reportedly reminded the Prime Minister of the party’s “red lines”, including opposing plans to increase electricity taxes and delaying increases to the state pension.
“We said what are the non-negotiables for us,” Le Pen said, the AP added. “Our political approach is straightforward. We defend the French people.”
Le Pen reportedly said that if the government wanted to force through the budget in December without making the changes it wanted, Her National Rally party intends to support a confidence vote The New Popular Front (NFP) alliance has issued threats.
Over the next few weeks, Budget bill expected to be reshuffled between Senate and Congressa majority of lawmakers have rejected the bill in its original form and subsequent revised forms. The initial budget is now before the Senate for review and debate before a final vote on December 12. Must pass by December 21st.
Barnier said he could use special constitutional powers to circumvent parliamentary votes and pass the budget through a presidential decree.
However, the same rules – Article 49.3 of the French constitution – allow opponents to file a motion of no confidence, giving left- and right-wing opposition parties a chance to overthrow the government if they unite.
Carsten Nickel, deputy director of research at risk consultancy Teneo, said much now depends on Le Pen’s next step.
“While the (left-wing) NFP will certainly put forward such a motion, the key figure remains Le Pen,” he said in an analysis last week.
“So far, her RN (National Rally) is expected to abstain from the vote. Letting the government survive and pass the budget would allow Le Pen to project a more responsible image than the NFP. However, Le Pen’s ongoing corruption trial may would mess up this calculation.
Le Pen and other prominent RN figures are currently on trial Accused of embezzling European Parliament funds through false employment. Le Pen denies any wrongdoing but if found guilty She could be jailed and banned from French politics for five years, Preventing her presidential ambitions from running in the 2027 elections.
The trial adds further uncertainty to whether the National Assembly will follow through on its threat to overthrow Barnier’s government. David Roach of Quantum Strategies said doing so would certainly distract from Le Pen, but was unsure whether she would be willing to take responsibility for bringing more political chaos and economic uncertainty to the EU’s second-largest economy.
Crisis brewing
France’s political system has been in disarray ever since The summer’s congressional elections were inconclusive, with both the Republican Party on the right and the National Liberal Party on the left winning their respective votes.
After the election, however, both groups were marginalized, with French President Emmanuel Macron putting right-leaning conservative Michel Barnier in charge of a minority government, much to the chagrin of those on the left.
The move also means that Barnier’s government, composed of Macron’s centrist and Republican MPs led by Barnier, has been relying on the support and survival of national rallies, leaving it vulnerable to the collapse of its leaders Jordan Bardella and Marine Le The influence of Pang’s whims.
Barnier’s government had already survived a no-confidence vote in October, initiated by angry NFP MPs led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon who believed their electoral victory was being undermined. deprived. The National Assembly abstained from that vote, effectively saving the fledgling government.
But the 2025 budget bill proposed on October 10 has caused divisions, with the far right opposing the government’s 60 billion euro ($62.85 billion) savings plan, of which 40 billion euros will come from spending cuts and the remaining 20 billion euros through tax increases.
The goal is to reduce the country’s huge deficit to about 5% of GDP by 2025. Down from 6.1% expected in 2024 — More than twice the level allowed by the European Commission.
EU countries are obliged to control budget deficits within 3% of gross domestic product and public debt within 60% of GDP. France’s budget deficit will account for 5.5% of GDP in 2023, and public debt will exceed 110%. Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin warned last month that the deficit could widen to 7% in 2025 if tough measures were not taken.
Quantum Strategy’s David Roche said he believed the French government “could fall in December” but noted that by law no legislation could be held until June 2025, 12 months after Macron’s last vote election.
“Macron can therefore let Barnier continue to lead a paralyzed caretaker government (without a budget!), or appoint someone like the governor of the Bank of France to lead a completely passive government with minimal tasks until June ” and then “more elections and more instability,” Roche said in emailed comments on Tuesday.
Roach warned that if the government did fall, “any idea that France will reduce its deficit and debt will be ruled out.”
He believes that France’s current economic data underestimates its fiscal challenges, estimating that the current budget deficit is 6.5% and the public debt-to-GDP ratio is 112%.
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