December 23, 2024

The stalls at the 590th Dresden Striezelmarkt were brightly lit at the opening.

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Statistical agency Eurostat said on Friday that the euro zone’s annual inflation rate rose to 2.3% in November, once again above the European Central Bank’s 2% target.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected annual interest rates to be 2.3% this month, up from 2% in October.

As the deflationary effect of energy prices weakened, as expected, the group’s price growth increased for two consecutive months after falling to 1.7% in September.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, remained at 2.7% for the third consecutive month in November.

The core interest rate was supported by the stickiness of service sector inflation, which fell only slightly to 3.9% in November from 4% last month.

The market has fully priced in the impact of the European Central Bank’s 25 basis point interest rate cut in December, which will mark the fourth rate cut this year.

Speculation that the central bank might be forced to cut interest rates by a further 50 basis points has faded since last month as the weak euro zone growth outlook improved slightly and inflation rebounded.

Inflation was slightly higher than expected in October, and ECB policymakers including Executive Board member Isabelle Schnabel have Emphasize the need for caution In terms of monetary easing.

The ECB’s decision will depend largely on the latest macroeconomic forecasts received ahead of its upcoming meeting on December 12. The central bank will also weigh the potential global impact of Donald Trump’s recent election as US president, including whether he will follow through on his threat of widespread trade tariffs and how such a move would affect EU exports.

this EUR It was slightly higher against the dollar and pound after the data was released.

Ballinger Group foreign exchange market analyst Kyle Chapman said in an email report that the overall rise in inflation is entirely due to year-on-year fluctuations in energy prices, and the European Central Bank will be optimistic that energy prices will fall by 0.9 percentage points this month. Monthly service inflation.

“With the growth outlook looking weak, there is no question that inflation will sustainably fall to 2% next year,” Chapman said. Still, the market seemed determined to rise 25 basis points in December, he added.

“The economy has not yet fallen off a cliff and there is uncertainty about where the neutral rate will be, so there is no urgent need to start cutting rates early,” he noted.

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