China is seeking to challenge the United States in artificial intelligence. China’s tech giants have launched their own models of artificial intelligence.
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China’s race to develop artificial intelligence that is smarter than humans could put it ahead of the United States, but such breakthrough technology could also weaken the ruling Communist Party’s grip on the world’s second-largest economy.
That’s the view of renowned artificial intelligence scientist Max Tegmark, who tells CNBC that artificial general intelligence (AGI) is closer than we think, setting the narrative for the geopolitical battle between the United States and China to build the smartest artificial intelligence. It’s a “suicide race.”
While there is no single definition of AGI, it is widely considered to refer to artificial intelligence capable of surpassing humans.
Apps like ChatGPT — which allows users to prompt chatbots for answers — have become popular. But many AI companies are racing to develop higher levels of AI with human-level intelligence.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said AGI could be implemented by 2025.
In addition to competition among technology companies, there is also a geopolitical battle between the United States and China for dominance in areas ranging from artificial intelligence to chips. While this is often described as a race to get the latest technology, Tegmark says that’s not the right framework.
“I think this war, this geopolitical war to build AGI in the first place is an ‘opium war,'” Tegmark told CNBC last month. “I call it an ‘opium war’ because it “It’s driven by the delusion that we can control AGI.”
Tegmark is president of the Future of Life Institute, a think tank that last year wrote a letter calling on AI labs to suspend development of advanced AI systems. The letter was signed by major tech companies, including Tesla CEO Musk. Tegmark’s concern is that artificial intelligence is advancing rapidly with few guardrails and no way to control it once it starts outsmarting humans.
“We are closer to building general artificial intelligence than figuring out how to control it,” Tegmark said. “This means that the race for general artificial intelligence is not an arms race but a suicide race.”
Is China worried about AGI?
Tegmark said China has no incentive to build general artificial intelligence. The artificial intelligence scientist recalled a story in which Musk told him about a “high-level meeting” the Tesla boss held with Chinese government officials in early 2023. “Will not be controlled.”
“(Musk) got a very strong reaction. Some of them really hadn’t thought about this, and within a month, China came out with its first artificial intelligence regulations,” Tegmark said. Reference to new regulations governing the production of artificial intelligence.
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs could not immediately be reached for comment. CNBC also reached out to Tesla seeking a response from Musk.
“The United States doesn’t need to convince China not to build general artificial intelligence. Even if the United States didn’t exist, the Chinese government would have an incentive not to build it because they want control,” Tegmark said.
“The last thing they want is to lose that control.”
China’s road to artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence is a strategic priority for the Chinese government. The country’s largest companies, such as AlibabaHuawei and Tencent has been developing its own artificial intelligence model. The capabilities of these models also continue to advance.
China is also one of the first countries in the world to regulate all aspects of artificial intelligence. The country’s internet is heavily censored and any information that appears to violate Beijing’s ideology is blocked. OpenAI’s ChatGPT is banned, and Chinese chatbots are known not to answer questions related to politics and topics deemed sensitive by the Communist Party.
The country’s approach to artificial intelligence is therefore an attempt to balance its own interests while promoting innovation. Analysts say China may take a similar approach when it comes to general artificial intelligence.
“I wouldn’t expect China to limit its artificial intelligence capabilities for fear that the technologies would threaten the Communist Party’s rule,” said Kendra Schaefer, a partner at the consultancy Trivium China. “Similar predictions have been made for the Internet, but they have been Proved wrong.
“China will attempt to dominate general artificial intelligence while creating a technology regulatory agency to limit general artificial intelligence activities domestically.”
The Artificial Intelligence War between China and the United States
While Tegmark sees the race to build general artificial intelligence as an “opium war,” geopolitics remains front and center between the United States and China when it comes to technology development.
“Right now, China is looking at AI through a dual lens: geopolitical power and domestic growth,” said Abishur Prakash, founder and geopolitical strategist at The Geopolitical Business, a Toronto-based strategy consulting firm.
“Through artificial intelligence, China hopes to change the global balance of power, such as creating new export models. At the same time, China hopes to drive its economy in new ways, from government efficiency to commercial applications,” Prakash told CNBC.
The United States pursues policies that seek to limit China’s access to key technologies, primarily semiconductors, such as those designed in the United States. NVIDIAneed to train more advanced artificial intelligence models. China responded by trying to build its own chip industry.
Will the United States and China cooperate on artificial intelligence regulations?
Technology experts warn that when general artificial intelligence finally arrives, there will be risks and dangers. One theory is that without guardrails, artificial intelligence will be able to improve itself and design new systems independently.
Tegmark believes both the U.S. and China would be aware of any such risks, which would force both governments to develop separate rules on AI safety.
“So my optimistic path forward is for the United States and China to unilaterally impose national security standards to prevent their own companies from causing harm and build uncontrollable general artificial intelligence, not to appease rival superpowers but simply to protect themselves, “Tegmark said.
“After that, though, the U.S. and China are going to enter a very interesting phase of, wait, how do we guarantee that North Korea isn’t going to build general artificial intelligence or whatever? And then the U.S. and China now have an incentive to push the rest of the world to join them. Queue, suspend general artificial intelligence.
In fact, governments are already trying to work together to figure out how to create regulations and frameworks around AI. Last year, the UK hosted an AI security summit attended by both the US and China to discuss potential safeguards surrounding the technology.
But the current regulations and rules surrounding artificial intelligence are fragmented. This year, The European Union enacted the Artificial Intelligence Act, the world’s first major law governing the technology. China has its own set of rules, while many other countries have not yet moved to enact any regulations.
Tegmark’s hopes for coordination around AI safety are echoed by others.
“When the dangers of competition outweigh the rewards, ideally there will be an incentive for countries to come together and self-regulate each other,” said Trivium China’s Schaefer.
“Indeed, some Chinese policymakers advocate addressing this potential problem ahead of time and establishing an international governance body under the United Nations – similar to the International Atomic Energy Agency – so Beijing wants to establish a global governance body,” she said.
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