On December 3, 2024, French Prime Minister Michel Barnier (center) listened to the government question at the National Assembly in Paris.
Julian de Rosa | AFP | Getty Images
The French government was ousted in a no-confidence vote on Wednesday, plunging the euro zone’s second-largest economy into a period of deep political uncertainty.
A majority of MPs from the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition and the far-right National Rally (RN) backed a motion of no confidence in the country’s lower house of parliament.
On Monday, motions were tabled by both left- and right-wing blocs after Prime Minister Michel Barnier used his special constitutional powers to force parliament to pass the social security budget bill without a vote.
The National Assembly voted in favor of its own “motion of censure” against the government and supported the NFP’s motion. any motion Requires the support of at least 288 deputies (574 deputies in the National Assembly) Seeing the vote of no confidence succeed. The far-right bloc and the left-wing alliance have a combined total of about 333 MPs in parliament, although some are expected to abstain from voting.
Losing the confidence vote means Barnier will be forced to submit his resignation to French President Macron, just three months after he took office as French Prime Minister on September 5. Barnier’s government will be the shortest-serving in France’s Fifth Republic, founded in 1958.
The chancellor’s ouster came after weeks of talks with opposition parties trying to reach agreement on part of a wider 2025 budget that included spending cuts and tax increases worth 60 billion euros ($63 billion) that were seen as necessary to curb France’s economic growth. It is expected to reach 6.1% in 2024.
Ultimately, however, Barnier’s minority government failed to win over opponents on both sides of the political spectrum. It faces the prospect of more haggling over a wider budget that must be passed by December 21 and is vulnerable to the whims of a national rally that tacitly supported the government until spending disagreements earlier this week Reach the top.
The appointment of Barnier, a right-leaning Republican, has been controversial since September because it came after the RN and NFP won parliamentary elections held in June and July respectively.
On Wednesday, ideologically distant groups expressed disgust with Barnier and the government. Their budget plans have brought them together in what some analysts have called an “unholy alliance” of political foes.
What happens next?
Barnier is expected to resign immediately, although Macron is expected to ask him to remain as caretaker prime minister while a successor is searched. New parliamentary elections will not be held until June-July next year, 12 months after the last vote.
Mujtaba Rahman, managing director of Europe at Eurasia Group, said that in terms of the budget, the fall of Barnier and the government means “all the unfinished legislative business will fall on them”.
Rahman said in emailed comments on Monday that the emergency budget could be passed within this month, effectively delaying 2024 tax legislation until a 2025 budget is agreed. But time to appoint a new prime minister is crucial because the caretaker government is unable to pass the 2025 budget. That puts pressure on Macron to choose a new prime minister quickly.
The composition of the government will be closely watched, “including the extent to which Macron is personally involved in the process,” said Carsten Nickel, deputy director of research at risk consultancy Teneo. Nicol warned that Barnier’s caretaker status was likely to continue as new elections were unlikely to be held before the summer.
Given the deep divisions in French politics, Barnier’s fate will serve as a stark warning to whomever Macron chooses to be the next prime minister, about the dangers and stumbling blocks he or she will face when trying to reach consensus on the budget and other major policy decisions. Long made the wrong decision to call early elections earlier this year.
On July 7, 2024, French President Emmanuel Macron walked out of a polling station decorated with curtains in the colors of the French flag and went to a polling station in Le Touquet (Le Touquet) in northern France to participate in the second round of the French legislative election.
Mohammad Badla | AFP | Getty Images
Macron, who ended a three-day state visit to Saudi Arabia on Wednesday night, has kept a low profile in recent weeks amid ongoing political turmoil in his government that was ultimately caused by his own decision-making. Macron will now face pressure over the appointment of a new prime minister and his own position.
“Macron can appoint any prime minister of his choice to replace Barnier, including Barnier himself,” Lachman said, but the French parliament could also “condemn his new choice at any time,” Lachman added.
“But both Macron and the parliamentary majority that opposes him must calculate their strategy carefully,” Rahman said.
“The left and far right must also be cautious. If they denounce the new prime minister, they have no legal authority to propose a stopgap budget for an extension. In theory, the government could shut down on January 1 without a legal basis to raise taxes on the basis To pay pensions or the police or health care or defence—or the salaries of representatives in the (national) parliament,” he noted.
At the same time, the president is likely to face demands from the left and right to resign so that new presidential elections can be held earlier than scheduled for 2027.
Analyst Carsten Nickel noted that Macron’s resignation would trigger a presidential election within 35 days, adding, “While this seems unlikely, early polls earlier this year should at least serve as a reminder that Macron likes Make lonely decisions.
Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia Group said Macron may ignore all pressure to resign, but “the new crisis has put him at the center of the political game again.”
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