The global tourism industry is set to fully recover from the Covid-19 pandemic this month, according to the United Nations Tourism Board.
According to the report, compared with the same period in 2019, in the first nine months of 2024, global international arrivals reached 98% of pre-epidemic levels.
The remaining 2% gap will close this month, the group said, marking a major shift for the industry as it enters a new era of growth.
According to data from the United Nations Tourism Office, most regions around the world have already crossed this threshold, especially the Middle East, where the number of international tourists in the first nine months of 2024 increased by 29% compared with the same period in 2019. The region’s growth during the period was mainly driven by increased tourist arrivals to Qatar (+141%) and Saudi Arabia (+61%), the report said.
Africa and Europe have also fully recovered, with arrivals increasing by 6% and 1% respectively, the report said.
The story is close in the Americas, with international tourist arrivals at nearly 97% (-3%) this year, while Asia-Pacific is at 85% of pre-pandemic levels, as the region continues to bear the brunt of the slow return of Chinese tourists.
The center of global growth
Today, the Asia-Pacific region may be lagging behind in international tourism, but it is expected to be at the center of global tourism growth in the coming decades.
The number of air passengers is expected to more than double in less than 20 years, jumping from 8.69 billion in 2023 to 19.49 billion in 2042, according to Airports Council International Asia Pacific and Middle East.
Most of the growth is expected to come from the Asia-Pacific region. The airport trade group estimates that over the next 20 years, more than a third of new passengers will come from just three countries: China, India and Indonesia.
Hotel companies are expanding aggressively in the area, with millions expected to move into the middle class over the next decade.
“There are 200,000 bedrooms for sale every night. We have another 915 hotels in the pipeline that are in various stages of construction,” he said.
On November 19, Hilton announced an agreement to open 150 Spark by Hilton hotels in India, a “high-end economy” brand launched by the company in 2023.
“We just signed agreements for 14 mid-sized hotels in Vietnam,” Watts said. “So the rise of mid-sized travelers is driving growth at the bottom of the pyramid.”
Marriott International Group CEO Anthony Capuano told CNBC Travel in an interview with “Squawk Box Asia” on November 18 that Marriott International Group opened the first Sheraton Four Points Hotel in Japan in November. 12 hotels.
“Back with a vengeance”
The global recovery has been hampered by the slow return of both Chinese outbound travelers and business travelers.
But Watts said both are rebounding, albeit at different rates.
“Business travel is making a comeback,” he said.
He said booking trends for business travelers in the first half of 2024, outside of China, were “absolutely outstanding, especially in Southeast Asia”. “Next year will hopefully be better than this year.”
He told Squawk Box Asia that 2024 will be “a story of two halves” for Chinese tourists.
Watts said consumer confidence was sluggish in the first half of the year. But he said increased travel interest in the second half of the year will affect bookings in the Asia-Pacific region in 2025, especially Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asia.
“But we think it will be 2026 before we see a recovery in the Chinese long-distance market to the U.S. and Europe,” he said.
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