Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz (Social Democratic Party) met with French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Tusk at the Federal Chancellery with military honors for a joint meeting.
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The dispute over military aid to Ukraine is deepening divisions in the German government, but Chancellor Olaf Scholz is expected to win despite “extremely unusual” public divisions.
At the center of the months-long dispute is whether Germany would launch long-range Taurus missiles into Ukraine, which can independently locate and destroy targets after being launched from an aircraft carrier.
Scholz has firmly rejected Kiev’s request for the missiles, but he has looked increasingly isolated in the post.
A key concern is that Ukraine may need on-the-ground help from German soldiers to use the Taurus missiles — a red line for Scholz.
There are few copies of the complex information needed to program the Taurus missile, according to leaked discussions among senior army chiefs reported in German media. This means that if Germany hands over these materials to Ukraine, Germany itself may lose access to the materials, making it a potentially dangerous move.
Scholz also said the Taurus weapon has a long enough range to hit Russia and the Kremlin could see it as Germany’s involvement in the war. Scholz believes that the country’s armed forces, the Bundeswehr, are unable to cope with Russia’s defense lines.
resist
Not everyone agrees.
The opposition Christian Democrats, or CDU, downplayed the risk that Russia might see Germany entering the war, while the Free Democrats (FDP) and the Greens – coalition partners of the Social Democrats (SPD) led by Scholz – Said the risk is manageable and worthwhile to avoid Russia winning the conflict.
Since November last year, the CDU has put forward several votes in the German parliament on the issue of launching Taurus missiles to Ukraine, but they have not been passed. Even so, the debate highlighted tensions within the ruling coalition.
Frank Sauer, a senior researcher at Bundeswehr University, said: “A majority of the Greens and Free Democrats favor delivering Taurus to Ukraine, while Chancellor Scholz and a majority of his Social Democrats strongly oppose this decision. There is clearly a disagreement,” the head of research at the Métis Institute for Strategy and Foresight in Munich told CNBC.
Several FDP MPs voted in favor of the CDU’s motion after the latest parliamentary debate on Thursday.
Meanwhile, Greens Foreign Secretary Annalena Berbock discussed the Taurus missile issue with British Foreign Secretary David Cameron. She later said she would consider a so-called “Ringtausch”, in which Germany fires Taurus missiles at Britain and Britain fires some of its own long-range Storm Shadow missiles at Ukraine.
Separately, a high-profile Greens MP teamed up with a prominent CDU politician to write an op-ed advocating for the delivery of Taurus missiles.
Alliance chaos
Ulrike Franke, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told CNBC: “This level of public disagreement within the governing coalition is extremely rare for German politics. Because Scholz refused to launch the Taurus plan, This has led to disunity within the ruling coalition.”
Taurus, an air-to-surface cruise missile jointly developed by Germany and Sweden, can be seen in the display room of European defense company MBDA.
Matthias Balke | Image Alliance | Getty Images
Sauer said the debate not only raised questions about the state and unity of the governing coalition but also highlighted broader issues in German politics.
“Unfortunately, the Taurus debate continues to suck up all the oxygen in the room, repeated over and over again. This is very unproductive and not conducive to Germany’s much-needed strategic learning curve,” he said.
Frank echoed this sentiment, saying the Taurus debate once again showed that Germany is in trouble on military and defense issues. Berlin has previously made headlines over its protracted dispute over sending Leopard-2 tanks to Ukraine.
“Three decades of geopolitical calm and peace, strategic thinking has atrophied,” she added.
“Destined to succeed”
Despite the growing public debate, Scholz is not expected to give in.
“It was clear that Scholz felt that launching the Taurus missile went too far,” Frank said. “It appears that the more he was pushed, the more Scholz insisted on his opinion and his right to make the decision.”
Frank noted that the prime minister has repeatedly insisted that the decision was his own, which she said showed the debate had become about his premiership and not just aid to Ukraine.
Scholz’s hardline stance on Taurus may also be part of a long-term strategy to position himself as a pacifist ahead of the next German parliamentary elections in 2025, Schauer said.
“The SPD seems to have gone into campaign mode, portraying Scholz as a ‘peace chancellor’,” he said.
However, his party currently ranks third in opinion polls, behind the CDU and the far-right Alternative for Germany, according to a monthly survey by independent research group Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, suggesting that Scholz must Make some changes.
Frank explained that current poll results were also part of the reason why the government coalition was unlikely to break up, as only the opposition would benefit. Sauer noted that while the Greens and the CDU may have broad consensus on Taurus, a coalition between them would be nearly impossible because their goals and styles are so different.
In this sense, Scholz’s “traffic light alliance is destined to succeed,” he added.
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