Analysts say Europe could fill Ukraine funding gap if U.S. troops withdraw | Wilnesh News

The risk of U.S. cuts to Ukraine funding is real following the election of Donald Trump and a Republican sweep of both houses of Congress, raising concerns among European leaders about what that would mean for the ongoing conflict.

Trump has previously said he would end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours and joined hawkish Republican lawmakers in public criticism of funding for the war-torn country, who nearly blocked a key aid package in April. plan. On Sunday, Trump told NBC’s “Meet the Press” that Ukraine would “probably” receive less military aid once he takes office.

But experts interviewed by CNBC said there is reason to believe that Europe, Ukraine’s largest donor, could make up the shortfall if the United States withdraws or tightens funding.

according to Kiel Economic Institute’s Ukraine Support TrackerFinancial aid to Ukraine has been tracked from January 2022 to October 2024, and Europe has pledged 241 billion euros ($255 billion) in aid and the United States has pledged 119 billion euros. Among them, so far, Europe has actually allocated 125 billion euros and the United States has allocated 88 billion euros.

Pietro Bomprezzi, head of the Ukraine Support Tracking Program, told CNBC that both Europe and the United States have provided “significant amounts of military assistance.”

As Ukraine’s largest donor and neighbor, Europe will bear the brunt if U.S. aid runs out and is not renewed under Trump. In the latest news update published by the tracker last week, Kristof Trebesh, head of the Ukraine Support Tracker, said: “With the current funding coming to an end, all eyes are on the incoming U.S. administration. and its willingness to support Ukraine.

European leaders have met several times since the election to bolster support for Ukraine, with many countries doubling down on their commitments.

Germany, Europe’s largest donor to Ukraine, has repeatedly reiterated its support for Ukraine and pledged further military aid during a surprise visit to Kiev last week: “Ukraine can rely on Germany,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has repeatedly blocked EU funding to Ukraine but struck a different tone last month, saying If the United States withdraws aid, Europe will be unable to fill the fiscal gap.

exist Latest update on December 5thThe Ukraine Support Tracking website said profits from using frozen Russian assets were “primarily available to European donors” and “could help them cover future losses of U.S. funds.”

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Brussels-based think tank Brueghel, told CNBC that “it would be very easy for the EU to make up for the U.S. financial support for Ukraine” and that it could Use instruments such as new mutual debt, bilateral donations and aid.

Nigel Gould-Davies, senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said the seizure and distribution of frozen Russian assets would be a “game changer.” Although G7 provides $50 billion in loans using Russian assets to pay interest While this is a small step in this direction, the EU can do more as it has full control over these assets.

“If the (G7) had the will to do so, it could provide the aggressor with a large sum of money and use it to defend Ukraine,” Gould-Davies said, adding that the main reason for not doing so was that certain EU member states are worried about the financial consequences.

There are other ways Europe can fill this gap. Kirkgaard pointed to the Danish model for financing Ukraine: instead of shipping Western-made weapons that are more expensive to produce, countries could directly finance Ukraine’s military-industrial complex.

Kirkgaard noted that even with the United States withdrawing key weapons, they can still be purchased: European countries could agree to a trade deal, as China did in 2018, and agree to buy American-made products, In this case it’s buying American made weapons.

Gould-Davies said how much energy Europe devotes to defending itself and Ukraine is “entirely a political choice.”

He describes it as a balance of resources versus a balance of resolve – a balance of resources that is good for Europe, but a balance of resolve that is good for Russia: Ukraine’s defense could get a lot of support if Europe had the political will to exploit its resource advantage.