Panoramic view of cocoa pods on the Ebeibda tree on November 30, 2024. Cocoa is one of Cameroon’s main exports.
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Prices for chocolate’s main ingredient have soared this year, prompting analysts to issue new warnings about extreme price volatility.
Cocoa futures The price of crude oil for March delivery in New York rose 1% to $11,938 per ton at around 7:10 a.m. EST on Tuesday, hitting another record high.
The benchmark contract hit an all-time intraday high of $11,925 in the previous session and is up more than 180% so far this year.
It comes amid renewed concerns about adverse weather conditions and tight supplies in West Africa, which is approx. three quarters World cocoa production.
Strategist at ING, ABN AMRO explain Continued tightness in cocoa and coffee markets, coupled with weather uncertainty, means prices are likely to remain volatile next year.
ING said in a research report that the global cocoa market will experience its largest deficit in more than 60 years in the 2023-2024 marketing year. data From the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO). It attributed the shortage to poor harvests in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, the world’s largest cocoa producers.
On February 2, 2024, in Chicago, Illinois, a worker at Katherine Anne Confections, an artisanal chocolate shop and cafe, prepares a chocolate drink for a customer.
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“While the outlook for the 2024/25 marketing year looks better, there are still concerns about weather developments in West Africa and their impact on the season,” ING head of commodity strategy Warren Patterson said in a note. Impact on yield.
“Current forecasts suggest that production in West Africa, which accounts for more than 70% of global production, will rise slightly. However, this is risky due to recent severe weather,” he continued.
Looking ahead, Patterson said prices are likely to remain at historically high levels next year, which is necessary to “limit demand.”
“One of the most interesting items”
Rabobank’s Carlos Meira pointed to cocoa and coffee as commodities of interest to professional traders.
“(Cocoa) is one of the most obscure commodities, so I wouldn’t advise anyone who doesn’t know to go there, but it’s certainly one of the most interesting commodities,” Mera told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.” Weeks two.
“Then coffee, we’ve had another spike. Coffee has reached its highest price since 1977 (and) depending on which contract you look at, that could be a record, and Robusta coffee prices are also at record highs… … It’s a very interesting situation,” he added.
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