Google’s recent announcement of Willow, a quantum chip that reduces the error proneness of some of its predecessors, is a milestone in the effort to bring quantum computing into the real world, and in the coming years it may Changing the Way Quantum Computing We Consider the Risks of Cryptocurrencies.
Willow’s speed was almost incomprehensible— According to Googleit was able to complete a calculation in five minutes that would have taken one of today’s fastest supercomputers a billion years to solve. Seventeen is 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years.
But so far, the accuracy of quantum computing has also been a big problem. Quantum is like a garden hose running at full speed with no one holding it: the water flows quickly, but its aim is not always accurate. In theory, Willow’s combination of speed and accuracy could give hackers the tools to unlock the algorithms that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are based on.
For now, qubits and Bitcoin can coexist
If you don’t know (and not many people do) what quantum computing (qubits) are made of, Tim Hollebeek, industry technology strategist at security firm DigiCert, has a simplified way of thinking about the breakthrough. He said imagine a maze and how a classical computer would try to navigate the maze from start to finish. It tries one possible path at a time. “Quantum computers will be able to try every path simultaneously, resulting in faster solutions,” Hollebeck said.
While Willow may not be ready for real-world applications yet, Willow’s speed and accuracy will help pave the way for larger-scale quantum computers.
“Part of the problem with qubits is that they are unstable and generate errors. This chip has significant error correction capabilities that can alleviate some of the qubit problems,” Hollebeek said.
This means that improved chips based on Willow’s breakthrough will be able to help hackers target cryptocurrencies – but for now at least, this concern is only theoretical.
“Theoretically, if a quantum computer could be developed with enough qubits, a quantum computer could solve this problem much faster and pose a threat to today’s cryptographic algorithms,” Hollebeck said. But he added that if you The practical reason why you can breathe easier today is simple if you own cryptocurrencies. “It doesn’t exist today, and it’s not expected to exist for at least the next five, 10, 15 years,” he said. The fastest five-year timeline depends on some unforeseen technological breakthrough.
Cryptocurrency’s decade-long lead
A Google spokesperson told CNBC that Willow and cryptocurrencies can coexist. “Willow chips cannot break modern cryptography,” he said, adding that Google also believes quantum technology with this capability is still years away.
In fact, according to Park Feierbach, an expert in decentralized finance technology and CEO of Radiant Commons, even if Willow can significantly increase the speed at which cryptocurrencies are cracked, quantum computing will still require several times the age of the universe. . According to NASA, the universe is 13.7 billion years old.
“There’s almost no reason to deploy Willow on this technology in a way that makes tractable progress. It’s still going to take too long,” Feuerbach said.
“It is estimated that it will take us at least 10 years to crack RSA, and will require approximately 4 million physical qubits to do so,” a Google spokesperson said. RSA is an encryption system used for cryptocurrencies.
For reference, Google’s processors now scale around 100 physical qubits.
“Quantum Security” Algorithm
A Google spokesperson emphasized that the timeline for quantum breakthroughs has been widely shared and Willow has not changed it.
“Google is on track to follow our planned roadmap,” he said. The spokesperson added: “The security community has long been aware of the projected timeline for breaking asymmetric encryption and has been working to define standards and collaborate to implement new algorithms to protect against attacks by both classical and quantum computers.”
In fact, Holleback said the encryption industry is researching “quantum-safe” encryption.
Hollebeek said that the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has released a variety of quantum security algorithms that can resist future quantum computer attacks, and NIST has set a timetable for the government and industry to deploy these algorithms to ensure that the country safety.
A Google spokesperson said: “Google and other industry leaders support standardization and are experimenting with algorithms in draft form.”
Although quantum is very efficient at unlocking algorithms (traditional encryption equations based on factoring huge prime numbers), it is not infallible, which is the hope of quantum-safe encryption.
“They’re really good at some things, but not everything,” Hollebeck said, noting that breaking with traditional asymmetric cryptography happens to be one of the things they’re really good at. “Fortunately, they are not good at other mathematical puzzles, and asymmetric cryptography can be updated to use these puzzles instead of factoring,” he said.
Tachisay, An assistant professor of electrical and computer engineering at the University of Massachusetts Amherst said existing cryptography must continue to evolve to withstand qubits. “As the potential of quantum computers to break existing cryptography becomes increasingly concerning, new cryptocurrencies could be developed that are specifically designed to be quantum secure. These new quantum cryptography will incorporate PQC, cryptography that resists the computing power of quantum computers. Algorithm,” Raza said.
Jeremy Allaire, co-founder, chairman and CEO of digital currency company Circle, said in an interview with CNBC last week that risks do exist, but his view of the future is still focused on the opportunities that are about to evolve. “The bottom line is, quantum encryption means you can more easily unlock things that the old locks were broken on, but you can also create better locks,” Allaire said. “So quantum encryption — this quantum actually It will be a huge turbocharger for cryptographic computing, cryptographic applications, and cryptocurrencies.”
Raza believes that quantum computing will ultimately bring about broader changes that extend beyond cryptography. Breakthroughs will make devices and software faster, revolutionize artificial intelligence, and improve data security through ultra-secure encryption methods. Raza said there will be advancements in computing, healthcare, energy and security in everyday life, so while these changes are still developing, we shouldn’t think about the cryptocurrency industry in isolation. “They could change the industry,” he said.
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