Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will arrive at the EU headquarters in Brussels on March 21, 2024 to attend the European Council Summit.
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Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is in political trouble ahead of European Parliament elections in June, with his ruling party shaken by two political scandals in six weeks.
Orban is a long-time ally of former U.S. President Donald Trump and is widely seen as an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. EU’s closest supporter. The right-wing leader has led the central European country since 2010, making him the EU’s longest-serving head of state.
However, two major recent scandals have shaken his dominance of Budapest’s political landscape at a sensitive time as Hungary prepares to hold local and European elections in early June.
Analysts at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group said the latest controversy “could create more problems” for Orban, noting that the Hungarian prime minister has previously been able to shake off pardon scandals without seriously losing public support.
Peter Magyar, a little-known lawyer who had been close to Orbán’s government, publish He said an audio recording last week proved senior officials conspired to cover up corruption. He has since announced plans to form a new party to challenge Orban’s Fidesz party.
Lawyer and former government insider Peter Magyar addresses people during a demonstration organized in front of the Prosecutor General’s Office in Budapest, Hungary, March 26, 2024.
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Zsuzsanna Vegh, a visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund, said: “A few months ago, Magyar was an unknown figure. Now he has successfully organized large-scale demonstrations in Budapest and dominated the political agenda and public discourse.” A transatlantic think tank in the United States.
Vige told CNBC that Magyar’s sudden political breakthrough showed the country’s huge need for new political leadership.
“He announced a political movement, He may try to exploit the disillusionment of Fidesz and the opposition and, more importantly, of undecided or even apolitical voters,” Vig said.
‘It’s unclear whether Mazar can maintain his momentum’
Magyar posted recordings of conversations with his then-wife, then-Hungarian Justice Minister Judit Varga, on Facebook and YouTube — in which she suggested she knew government officials had tampered with evidence in a corruption case while she was in office.
Enlightenment hint According to Reuters, on March 26, thousands of citizens protested near the Parliament in Budapest. The demonstrations followed the country’s biggest protests in years in early February, when former Hungarian president Katalin Novak pardoned a man jailed for covering up a series of child sex abuses. man.
Orban allies including Novak and Varga were forced to resign following the pardon scandal.
A government spokesperson told CNBC that the situation could be compared to the famous Shakespeare play “Much Ado About Nothing.” They added that Magyar’s political intervention had “failed”.
Lawyer and former government insider Peter Magyar addresses his supporters during a demonstration organized near the Hungarian Parliament in Budapest, Hungary, March 26, 2024.
Janos Cuomo | Getty Images News | Getty Images
on facebook postal On March 26, Varga accused Magyar of domestic violence during their relationship and claimed she was coerced into making the comments. Magyar denied the claims in a separate Facebook post postal.
Vige said Magyar’s political success will largely depend on whether he can maintain the momentum behind him ahead of Hungary’s parliamentary elections in 2026 – analysts at Eurasia Group noted the ruling party’s “widespread” concerns about the public media landscape Control gets in the way of this challenge.
“Given these realities, it is unclear whether Magyar can maintain momentum ahead of June’s European Parliament elections unless he continues to press charges against alleged government misconduct,” analysts at Eurasia Group said in a research note released on March 28. Make substantial disclosures.”
“Furthermore, adding another party to the opposition mix could work to Orban’s advantage in the June elections, as the minimum threshold for parties to enter parliament is 5%. Any party’s votes below this threshold will ultimately count against Favorable to Fidesz, it is possible for Fidesz to pass. “The party will increase its seat share,” they added.