While world leaders expressed shock and confusion over Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa’s decision to raid the Mexican embassy IThat unusual move — and Noboa’s relative silence about it — is unlikely to hurt him or his constituents on Friday. In fact, this is exactly the kind of no-holds-barred crime-fighting approach they expected and voted for.
Ecuadorians are looking for their activists in the last election, fed up with widespread corruption and robbery, kidnapping, extortion and murder fueled by a growing number of international drug cartels. Noboa often wears a bulletproof vest, sunglasses and a leather jacket, occasionally wearing a business casual white T-shirt, and so far, he seems to be fulfilling that role. Ecuadorians interviewed over the weekend told The Associated Press that if stopping lawbreakers means breaking into the embassy, so be it.
“President Noboa sent a strong message to the country,” said Carlos Galesio, political communications consultant and communications program coordinator at the University of Casa Grande in Ecuador. “(It’s) a very powerful image boost.”
Noboa, the 36-year-old heir to one of Ecuador’s greatest fortunes, was sworn in as president in November after a surprise victory in special elections in August. He defeated a protégé of leftist former president Rafael Correa, who avoided jail on corruption convictions by moving to Belgium and gaining asylum there.
Noboa inherited a country where people no longer leave home unless absolutely necessary, almost everyone knows a crime victim and many consider emigrating. Statistics back up these decisions and experiences: last year was Ecuador’s bloodiest year ever, with more than 7,600 homicides, compared with 4,600 the year before.
The reasons for the surge are complex, but mostly related to cocaine. Cartel-funded gangs are vying for control of streets, prisons and drug-trafficking routes to the Pacific. Shrinking state coffers, soaring debt, political infighting and corruption have left funding gaps for social and law enforcement programs. The COVID-19 pandemic has made it easy for hungry children and unemployed adults to become new members of criminal syndicates.
Noboa responded by pledging to provide more equipment for the police and armed forces and to build prisons similar to those built by President Nayib Bukele in El Salvador, with high-security, maximum security and super units. He has also issued a decree classifying more than 20 criminal groups as terrorist organizations and plans to hold a referendum in April asking voters to expand the military’s power to patrol streets and control prisons.
A recent survey by Cedatos, an Ecuador-based public opinion company, showed that more than two-thirds of respondents approved of Noboa becoming president, and more than half supported his decision to call voters to the polls.
Police entered the Mexican embassy in the capital Quito to arrest former Vice President Jorge Glas, a convicted criminal and fugitive who had lived there since December. In his first comments on the operation on Monday, Noboa said he had taken the “extraordinary decision to protect national security, the rule of law and the dignity of the people, rejecting any form of impunity for criminals, corrupt elements or narco-terrorists” .
“My obligation is to abide by the rulings of the justice system and we cannot allow sentenced criminals involved in very serious crimes to obtain asylum,” Noboa said, arguing that this would violate the Vienna Convention and other international agreements. In a statement posted on social platform X, Noboa did not mention Glass by name but suggested he was an “imminent flight risk.”
Under the Treaty of Vienna, diplomatic premises are considered foreign territory and are “inviolable” and cannot be entered by the host country’s law enforcement agencies without the permission of the ambassador. Mexico plans to challenge the raid at the World Court in The Hague.
Nonetheless, Noboa’s show of force quickly won him domestic acclaim.
“I support President Noboa’s actions. I think it’s a brave act… I think it will strengthen him,” said university professor Gabriela Sandoval. “The immediate priority is to clean, disinfect, continue the same important procedures as President Noboa and get the house back in order.”
Ecuadorians will vote for president in February. Noboa is eligible to run for re-election.
Confidence in Noboa is so high that business groups believe the global condemnation of the attack will not affect commerce or the already thorny trade agreement negotiations between Ecuador and Mexico, which has impacted Ecuador’s interest in joining the Latin American Pacific Alliance trade bloc. poses a key obstacle.
“These political and current issues will somehow pass and then relations will return to normal,” said Roberto Aspiazu, vice president of the Ecuadorian-Mexico Chamber of Commerce. “Sooner or later this trade agreement will also become a reality because Negotiations exist and must resume at some point.”
Still, the timing of Ecuador’s diplomatic breakdown with Mexico may be particularly unfortunate for Ecuador and counterproductive to Noboa’s crime-fighting ambitions, said Will Freeman, a fellow in Latin American studies at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations think tank.
Ecuador had been one of the calmest countries in Latin America until about four years ago, when Mexican and Colombian drug cartels expanded their operations in Ecuador, moving into coastal cities and using world-class ports to transport hundreds of millions of dollars worth of goods produced in neighboring Colombia. Cocaine and Peru.
“The Ecuadorian gangs are criminal forces in their own right, but they are allied with a new generation of cartels in the Mexican states of Sinaloa and Jalisco,” Freeman said. “In an ideal world, Noboa would seek help from the Mexican government. Cooperation to combat these gangs and their international partners, but clearly, with the breakdown of diplomatic relations, that is not going to happen.”
While it’s unclear whether Noboa expected the global backlash to his decision, some of the criticism may be more serious than others.
The United States provided Ecuador with critical equipment and training in fighting drug cartels during Noboa’s administration and reiterated the importance of complying with international law after last week’s raid.
“The United States takes very seriously the obligation of host nations to respect diplomatic missions under international law,” said Brian Nichols, Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs. “We encourage Ecuador and Mexico to resolve their differences amicably.”
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