Oil tanker hijacking ‘will put Iran in long-term trouble’, experts say | Wilnesh News

Container ship MSC Aries Detained by Iran The weekend incident was at least the sixth ship seized by Iran and its proxies in response to the Israel-Gaza war, posing a greater challenge to long-standing freedom of navigation principles on which maritime shipping depends.

Before the tanker was seized this weekend, the last ship Iran hijacked was the San Nicolas on January 1. The crew was taken hostage. Previously, Iran-backed Houthi rebels hijacked the Galaxy Leader on November 19.

The latest developments have shipping and energy experts bracing for longer periods of uncertainty.

“Iran is in this for the long haul,” said Samir Madani, co-founder of Tankertrackers.com, an independent online service that tracks and reports on crude oil shipments to multiple points of geographic and geopolitical interest.

Iran confirms MSC Aries has ties to Israel. The container ship has a carrying capacity of 15,000 TEU (twenty-foot equivalent containers). MSC chartered the vessel, but it is owned by Israeli billionaire Eyal Ofer’s Zodiac Maritime.

MSC declined to comment.

Madani said he did not expect a release or talks about a release anytime soon. “They are going to hold the MSC Aries for the long term. Iran has been holding some of the tankers for about a year, maybe even longer now,” he said.

According to information from Tankertracker, Madani said the ship was detained in the Kuran Strait, not far from three other oil tankers hijacked by Iran: Advantage Sweet, Niovi and St. Nikolas.

As the United States considers imposing more sanctions on Iran in response to its recent attacks on Israel, Iran has been using hijacked ships as a means of retaliating for the sanctions.

Madani said: “Iran has seized Kuwaiti oil from the Advantage Sweet and loaded it onto its VLCC supertanker Navarz. Iran has chosen to do this to compensate for the sanctions.”

While the Niovi was empty when it was seized, the San Nicolas was filled with 1 million barrels of Iraqi oil.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Tuesday the government may take more steps to prevent Iran from exporting oil despite U.S. sanctions.China’s purchases of Iranian oil in recent years have kept Iran afloat trade surplus.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, China, as the world’s largest crude oil importer, 11.3 million barrels of crude oil imported per day By 2023, it will increase by 10% compared with 2022. Customs data shows that China’s crude oil imports from Malaysia in 2023 (1.1 million barrels per day) will increase by 54% compared with 2022. Industry Analyst It is speculated that much of the oil shipped from Iran to China is relabeled as coming from countries such as Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates and Oman to avoid US sanctions.

JPMorgan Chase said the market continues to assess the risk of further escalation of military tensions between Israel and Iran, which could lead to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 30% of the world’s seaborne oil passes. Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday amid discussions about sanctions.

JPMorgan said an Iranian blockade would push oil prices higher, but the risk was low given that Tehran had repeatedly threatened to close the strait over the past four decades and the strait has never been closed.

“They can’t close the Strait of Hormuz, but they can do some damage to the region’s energy infrastructure and The vessel caused significant damage.

“While I can’t imagine that Iran would want to fill their anchorages with ships, they would want to keep the waters in a constant state of chaos,” Madani said. But in the end, he said, “They would be shooting themselves in the foot because Their biggest customer is China.”

Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would cause Brent crude oil prices to surge into the $120 to $130 range. “This will cause tensions with China and India, which buy large amounts of Persian Gulf oil to meet most of their energy needs.”

Libo also said Iran may be reluctant to close the waterway for fear of angering Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq, which rely on the strait’s opening for much of their oil exports. He said the bigger concern in the oil market right now is that Iran’s attacks on Israeli territory will lead to Israel’s counterattack against Iran and the destruction of oil production and export facilities.

Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners, said the market needs to pay close attention to possible sanctions imposed by the United States and the United Nations.

In a note to clients, ClearView highlighted that the House this week added several Iran sanctions bills to its calendar for consideration under the moratorium rule, including new sanctions on Iran’s oil exports to China. Booker said the House of Representatives is considering a total of 11 bills in response to Iran’s attacks on Israel.

“We believe that most, if not all, bills will receive (nominally) veto-proof bipartisan support,” the report said. “Passage requires a two-thirds majority of all members present and voting.”

Israel has also asked the United Nations to reinstate multilateral sanctions lifted by the Iran nuclear deal, but to do so, France, Germany and the United Kingdom, parties to the nuclear deal, must agree. “There are a lot of risks. The forest is on fire,” Booker said.