Iran’s weekend attack on Israel marks a “new paradigm” in the Middle East conflict that risks escalating into a wider regional war, Chatham House’s Middle East director said on Monday.
London-based think tank Sanan Wakil said Israel’s war cabinet vowed on Sunday to “set a price” for Tehran’s overnight air strikes on the Jewish state and that it was a matter of when, not if, Israel would respond. React to the question.
“It will be difficult for the Israeli leadership not to respond. They may not act immediately, but I think a confrontation between Israel and Iran – which will probably be priced in by the market – is definitely coming, it’s just a matter of time,” Vakil told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday.
Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles at military targets in Israel on Saturday in response to Israeli attacks on senior Iranian officials in Syria.
The attack, which was well-notified in advance, provided some opportunity for Israel to reshape its image after months of attacks in Gaza, which many viewed as being related to Hamas’s October 7 terror attack. Disproportionate.
However, Vakil said an Israeli counteroffensive could further escalate tensions between the two long-time rivals, moving from a “shadow war to a very direct and overt war” and attracting their respective allies.
“We have realized that a new paradigm has emerged in the Middle East. Warnings of regional war have proven to be a reality,” Wakil said in a separate research note emailed to CNBC.
“Confidence is low that Israel can attack Iran and counterattack without drawing other countries in the region into this wider conflict,” she added.
U.S. response takes center stage
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Sunday that the Middle East was “on the brink” and urged both countries to de-escalate tensions.
Wakil noted that regional actors now rely on the United States and Western allies to “exercise restraint” on Israel to prevent a wider conflict.
His response going forward will prove particularly sensitive because it could play a decisive role in November’s US presidential election.
Vakil said: “This attack on Israel has restored warmth to relations between the two countries and shows that the United States still supports Israel. But in this critical election year, the United States does not want to get involved in bigger things.”
“Iran is a toxic asset to Washington and Republicans will likely criticize President Biden for not taking a tougher stance on Iran, so this is an inflection point throughout the campaign,” she added.
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