On April 15, 2024, a worker fixed the flag of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party to the symbol of the party leader and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Idris Mohammed | AFP | Getty Images
CHENNAI, India — Polling stations opened in India’s Tamil Nadu state on Friday as the country begins a massive national election process that will see all 39 constituencies in the main southern state go to the polls. The first stage.
Politics in India’s sixth-largest state by parliamentary seats has been dominated by regional actors who rely on nationalist ideologies rooted in Tamil language and culture to build a support base.
More than 62.2 million voters will choose from 950 contestants in Tamil Nadu. nationwide, 102 constituencies Voting will be held in 21 states in the first phase.
For decades, in Tamil Nadu, the two national parties – the Indian National Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party – have taken a backseat to the two main regional parties, the Dravida Muneet and Kazhagam (DMK) and All India Anna Dravida Muneet Kazhagam (AIADMK)).
DMK won the 2021 Tamil Nadu elections, defeating the incumbent AIADMK.
While the Congress party has been out of power in the state since the late 1960s, the Bharatiya Janata Party, which was only formed in 1980, has so far failed to build a solid voter base in Tamil Nadu.
But the winds of change appear to be brewing — but not enough to change the state’s landscape, though.
Experts, politicians and locals told CNBC the prime minister Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party will achieve significant growth in Tamil Nadu, which has so far been a bulwark against the BJP. Hindu nationalist politics.
The Tamil Nadu vice-president of the BJP said that after the deaths of AIADMK leader J. Jayalalithaa and DMK patriarch M. Karunanidhi, there was a vacuum of charismatic local leaders and people are now turning their attention to the BJP and Modi. Tiru disease.
“There is a silent revolution going on in the state,” Tirupati told CNBC.
Political observers and psychologists predict that the BJP will make significant gains in vote share. However, this may not translate into parliamentary seats.
Famous polling strategist Prashant Kishor It is reported that He expected the BJP to get a “double-digit” vote share in Tamil Nadu.
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Kishore, who helped manage the campaigns of several parties including the BJP in 2014, said the BJP “will be the first or second party in Telangana (another southern state) , which is a big deal. The party won 4 out of 17 seats in Telangana in the 2019 elections.
Sanjay Kumar, co-director of the Lokniti Research Program at the Center for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in New Delhi, told CNBC that the BJP and its allies could gain 20% of the vote share in Tamil Nadu.
The party contested the 2019 Tamil Nadu general election as the junior partner of the regional AIADMK and although it won a landslide majority nationwide, ensuring Modi was elected for a second time, it failed to win in Tamil Nadu that year. Germany received only 3.66% of the vote. In the last general election, the BJP’s share of the national vote was just over 37%.
Kumar said that although Tamil Nadu’s vote share will increase significantly compared to 2019, the BJP may win only one or two constituencies. “I don’t think they will be challengers to the local parties in 2024.”
However, the BJP claims that it will win a huge victory not only in terms of vote share but also in terms of number of seats.
“This time we will be the second largest party in terms of votes and seats,” Tirupati said, adding, The party has built a strong base in every “corner” of the state.
DMK spokesperson A. Sarvanan refuted these claims, calling them “fantasy”. The vote share of the BJP is likely to increase as they field more candidates this time, he said, adding that the BJP will not win a single seat in Tamil Nadu.
A poll NDTV’s program on Wednesday showed that the BJP is likely to win only two seats in the state, while the opposition Alliance for Inclusive Development of India, which includes the DMK, is likely to get 33 seats and the remaining four seats will be won by the AIADMK.
Voters in Tamil Nadu interviewed by CNBC also said the BJP was unlikely to win a large number of seats in the state.
“It’s DMK all the way. The BJP has no chance here,” said Sultan, who runs a small shop at the T. Nagar flea market in Chennai.
Sitting opposite him was Giza, a Modi supporter, who said: “Modi is superman, but DMK will sweep Tamil Nadu. Modi will win India.”
Bharatiya Janata Party’s Southern Pivot
The DMK’s Sarvanand said the BJP’s appeal in southern states, especially Tamil Nadu, was not as good as in the north because its “Hindu” politics did not appeal to the people here. Hindutva is an umbrella term used to denote the incitement of Hindu nationalism to achieve political ends.
A Lokniti-CSDS poll Last week showed that religion is no longer a top concern among voters at large. In southern states, Sarvanan said, the issue is less of a concern: Religion is a personal matter in Tamil Nadu, unlike in some northern states where religion has been politicized.
The survey showed that only 4% of the respondents wanted to give the current government another chance because of “protecting Hindu interests/Hindu identity”. In comparison, as many as 42% want the BJP to be re-elected for its “good job”.
Kumar of the Lokniti-CSDS said people in southern states are not as vulnerable to emotional and religious issues as those in the Hindi heartland, which consists of several states in northern India.
“If you look at the nature, tenor and tenor of the BJP’s campaign in the southern states, you will see that it is very different compared to the northern states. In the southern states, the BJP campaigned more development and the image of India.
While the BJP is trying to make inroads in Tamil-speaking states, it is also trying to alleviate people’s concerns about “hindi imposed” This is a question often raised by various parties in the region.
“We are committed to establishing Tiruvallur as a cultural hub globally. As the world’s oldest language, Tamil is a source of immense pride for us and the BJP is committed to working together to enhance its global status.” Modi said when he released the BJP manifesto earlier this month. Thiruvarur was a respected Indian poet and philosopher from Tamil Nadu.
The party has never won a Lok Sabha seat in Tamil Nadu. The Lok Sabha is the lower house of India’s bicameral parliament and consists of representatives directly elected by the people.
Of the five southern states of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu, the BJP has built a strong voter base only in Karnataka.
Kumar warned that it was unfair to treat southern India as a single entity.
“We have to look at it state by state… Different parties have formed governments in different states. Tamil Nadu is very different from Karnataka. The nature of competition (in the southern states) is also very different,” he said.
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