As the second phase of the Indian general election begins on April 26, 2024, farmers in the Indian state of Punjab are intensifying their protests.
Narinder Nanu | AFP | Getty Images
NEW DELHI – Farmers in India’s Punjab state are intensifying their protests as the second phase of India’s general election begins on Friday.
Thousands of farmers continue to fight for support for their demands, most importantly legal guarantees of minimum support prices for their produce.
They occupied railway tracks in northwestern Punjab, disrupting operations, There are 149 train routes in total Flights were either canceled, diverted or terminated midway on Wednesday amid demands for the release of farmers detained by police.
While protesters are starting to up the ante, this unrest that began in February appears to be a pale shadow of the protests in 2020, when hundreds of thousands of farmers took to the streets for a year to protest against three farm laws.
The farm laws were repealed in 2021, a rare policy setback for Prime Minister Modi.
This time, however, the protests were relatively low-key, largely confined to the Shambhu and Kanauli borders between the northern Indian states of Punjab and Haryana, as they were hoarded by roadblocks and monitored by state police and paramilitary forces.
A number of prominent leaders from other states who participated in earlier protests have also been detained missing in action.
The government is showing no signs of capitulation, despite the risk of losing massive farmers’ support as Modi seeks a third term in national elections.
Congress and several opposition parties have included farmers’ demand for minimum support price (MSP) in their agenda. declarationYogendra Yadav, a political activist and former psychologist, said that while the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has “steadfastly refused to acknowledge the demand, it will have some repercussions (in terms of elections)” )”.
about 250 million People working in agriculture make up about 45% of India’s workforce, according to government data.
Sanjay Kumar, co-director of the Lokniti research program at the Center for Development Studies in New Delhi, said people were “very sympathetic” to the farmers’ cause because of the BJP’s heavy-handed approach to the protesters.
A Lokniti-CSDS survey earlier this month showed 59% of respondents believe farmers’ demands are “real”, while 16% believe the protests are a “conspiracy” against the government.
However, the electoral juggernaut of Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party is unlikely to be significantly affected by the ongoing unrest. multiple investigations It is predicted that the ruling party will win this national election.
On December 24, 2021, farmers blocked railway tracks and shouted slogans during a protest against the central government’s agricultural reforms on the outskirts of Amritsar, demanding compensation and employment opportunities for the families of the deceased.
Narinder Nanu | AFP | Getty Images
Kumar said the protests were unlikely to have any material impact on the BJP’s electoral prospects.
“When farmers go to vote, it’s not like they say: ‘We are farmers, so we have to vote collectively to topple this government or support that government.’ Usually, they vote along party lines,” Kumar said.
same survey It shows that 44% of people want the government to be re-elected, mainly because the government “does a good job.”
“People may be very anxious, but it doesn’t matter if they end up voting for the same party. I don’t think there will be a significant change in the outcome of the 2024 elections compared to 2019 (when the BJP won a second term),” he said. ” Kumar said.
CNBC did not immediately receive a response from India’s agriculture ministry to inquiries about the farmers’ demands.
Suppressing dissent?
Farm leaders alleged that the government was trying to confine the protests to Punjab and make it a local issue.
“When we started protesting, the government told us that we cannot bring vehicles like tractors to Delhi but can come through public transport. However, when farmers from other states ruled by the BJP tried to come to Delhi in trains and buses , they were detained.
local media reports It said dozens of farmers were detained.
A small group of farmers from Tamil Nadu held protests at Delhi’s Jantar Mantar on Tuesday and Wednesday in solidarity with farmers in Punjab and Haryana. They said they had also participated in protests at the Sabu border, which is the nerve center of the current demonstrations.
“We will now go to Varanasi and 1,000 people will submit their nominations against Modi,” said Tamil Nadu farmer leader P. Ayyakannu. Modi is running for a parliamentary seat in Varansay city in Uttar Pradesh state.
Dhalewal, convener of the Samyukta Kisan Morcha (non-political), a coalition of farmers’ unions that is organizing the current protests, said they will continue to protest but the demands are not a political issue for them.
“The elections are about to begin and we are sitting here, so political parties must take notice and include our demands in their poll manifestos,” Dhalewal told CNBC.
What do Indian farmers want?
The most important demand of Indian farmers is a guaranteed minimum support price – the minimum price at which government agencies can buy crops from farmers – aimed at protecting them from wild swings in the market.
Farmers want MSP for their produce to be fixed as per Ministry of Agriculture guidelines swaminathan committee to farmers. The committee issued five reports between 2004 and 2006 recommending that MSPs earn profits in excess of 50% of their production costs.
Other key demands include loan forgiveness, pensions for all farmers over 60 years old, significant wage increases (almost two to three times current wages) and 200 days of job security. They also insist on India withdrawing from the World Trade Organization.
Several economists said the farmers’ demands were not economically viable.
“These requirements will not only be detrimental to the agricultural sector, but will also have a significant impact on the economy. The entire economy will be thrown into chaos,” Ashok Gulati said .
Farm leaders including Dhalewal told CNBC that their demands were not new and politicians including the prime minister Already agreed Most of the things they have asked for in past political campaigns.
Surjit Bhalla, a former executive director of the International Monetary Fund and a former member of the Prime Minister’s Council of Economic Advisers, has been critical of the demands.
“One day we will all face reality… We have taken significant steps towards reality since 2014, but in some areas, such as the agricultural sector, agricultural laws, we are still stuck in 19th century,” he told CNBC.
Economist Arun Kumar, a former professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, disagrees. He said the suggestion that the government is overburdened by farmers’ MSP requirement is misleading.
“Only when (commodity) prices fall below a certain level, the legal guarantee of MSP comes into play. Only then does the government need to buy,” Kumar told CNBC. “If the price is not below MSP, the government does not have to buy anything. In fact, 95% of products can be sold on the open market.
—CNBC’s Naman Tandon contributed to this article.