European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has pushed for a policy to avoid risks from China.
Frédéric Florin | AFP | Getty Images
BRUSSELS, Belgium — European diplomats have begun key negotiations over who will hold key EU posts after elections next month.
Voters in the EU’s 27 member states will go to the polls from June 6 to 9 to elect the next group of representatives to the European Parliament. The EU’s top job is not directly elected and then eliminated in the following weeks. They have influence over central decision-making in Brussels, which ultimately affects the livelihoods of the region’s 450 million people.
Diplomats within the EU are already working to determine who will lead its three institutions in the coming years: the European Commission, the European Council and the European Parliament.
Three senior officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the negotiations, told CNBC that the most likely scenario is that Ursula von der Leyen, the current president of the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, will remain in her job.
In 2019, French President Emmanuel Macron put Von der Leyen’s name on the map to break the deadlock on the overall “top jobs” plan, which included Christine Lagarde. As the new president of the European Central Bank, Von der Leyen has risen to the top of European policymaking.
“Von der Leyen has strong support from European heads of state,” one of three sources told CNBC by phone.
However, the source added that Macron, the mastermind behind the last round of talks, has yet to express support for von der Leyen’s reauthorization, suggesting he is retaining some wiggle room when formal talks begin after the talks end.
Actually, Bloomberg reported Macron has been floating the idea of bringing former European Central Bank president Mario Draghi back into EU politics to lead the commission.
A senior EU diplomat told CNBC that Macron is using silence to pressure von der Leyen. A third source said Draghi might not take the job but agreed it was a way to pressure von der Leyen. CNBC has contacted the Elysée Palace but was not immediately available for comment.
Current polls suggest von der Leyen’s party, the conservative European People’s Party in the EU parliament, is likely to win EU-wide elections, however she may have to reach some compromises with far-right politicians as they prepare Increase the number of seats in the council chamber.
Three sources also told CNBC that if von der Leyen remains as European Commission president, a member of the European socialist bloc is expected to lead the European Council, a body that brings together heads of state from around the world.
Former Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen are two candidates currently being discussed in Brussels.
In typical Brussels fashion, which seeks to allocate top posts to the party with the most votes, the election will leave the post of senior representative of the EU’s top diplomat in charge of foreign relations to the liberal group “Renaissance”. Here, Estonian Prime Minister Kaya Karas is seen as the most likely candidate.
With just a month until voters go to the polls, negotiations over the next top job are intensifying. However, the final decision will be made only after the results are in.
Regardless of who leads the EU, policymaking in Brussels over the next five years is expected to focus more on defense and how to reduce some reliance on China and, to some extent, the United States.
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