April retail sales, industrial production, investment data

The picture shows that on February 21, 2024, the BYD factory in Huai’an, China is producing new energy trucks.

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BEIJING – Data from China on Friday showed growth in consumption slowed, while industrial activity remained strong.

The National Bureau of Statistics said that total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.3% year-on-year in April. This was lower than the 3.8% growth forecast in a Reuters survey and lower than the 3.1% growth reported in March.

Industrial production rose 6.7% year-on-year in April, beating expectations for 5.5% growth. This is also a significant rebound from 4.5% in March.

However, fixed asset investment grew by 4.2% in the first four months of this year, lower than the expected 4.6%.

The decline in investment in real estate development has increased, with an annual decrease of 9.8% in the first four months of 2024.

During the period, growth rates in both infrastructure and manufacturing investment slowed slightly from levels reported in March.

The urban unemployment rate in April was 5%. The bureau has previously said it would release details by age within days of the overall data being released.

According to data from the Ministry of Commerce of China, during the holiday period from April 29 to May 3, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.8% annually.

The Ministry of Commerce said that driven by the national trade-in policy, retail sales of home appliances increased by 7.9% and automobile retail sales increased by 4.8% during the same period.

The main indicators of industry, exports, employment, and prices have improved overall, and new driving forces have maintained rapid growth.

The National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement that April data were affected by the Labor Day holiday on May 1 and a higher base last year.

Liu Aihua, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that the multi-day Labor Day holiday on May 1 last year included two days in April. This year the holidays don’t start until May 1st.

She said the real estate industry is still in a period of adjustment.

China is also set to launch a six-month program on Friday to issue decades-long bonds to fund strategic projects. Oxford Economics doesn’t expect much of the economic impact to be felt until the first half of next year.

Liu pointed out that the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds will also help boost market confidence.

So far mixed results

Other data released in April showed mixed growth.

Exports in April increased by 1.5% year-on-year, in line with expectations; import growth far exceeded expectations, growing by 8.4%.

Last month’s rise in consumer prices was another sign of stabilizing domestic demand.

But price measures at the factory level continue to fall. New lending data fell in April to a level not seen in at least two decades, largely due to changes in data measurement but also reflecting weaker future borrowing demand from businesses and households.

The real estate industry’s long slump shows no clear signs of improvement, with many pre-sale apartments still under construction. In the past few weeks, more cities have loosened restrictions on home purchases to boost sales.

Housing policy details expected

Officials from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the central bank and financial regulators are scheduled to hold a news conference on Friday afternoon to introduce policies to support housing delivery.

Wang Dan, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank (China), said in an interview late last month that she expected China’s real estate market to stabilize by the end of next year.

“In my opinion, this policy actually succeeded in a very brutal way because it happened so quickly because it basically stopped speculation,” she said.

She noted that while the downturn in the housing market has particularly hit the wealth of the middle class, the overall economy remains stable.

“Data quality aside, the economy seems to be able to make up for the huge losses in the real estate market through industrial investment and manufacturing,” Wang said. “It shows certain advantages in the way China’s economy is organized and the way industrial policy is implemented. ”

China official GDP increased by 5.3% in the first quarter, better than the expected 4.6%. The country has set a GDP growth target of around 5% in 2024.

The European Chamber of Commerce in China told reporters last week that recent economic pressures appear to be cyclical, and that for foreign companies, it is more important to see the growth of domestic demand rather than the growth of industrial investment.

According to data from the Ministry of Commerce of China, during the holiday period from April 29 to May 3, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.8% annually.

The Ministry of Commerce said that driven by the national trade-in policy, retail sales of home appliances increased by 7.9% and automobile retail sales increased by 4.8% during the same period.