UK general election 2024: Analysts predict ‘historic’ result | Wilnesh News

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak this week called a national election for July 4, ending months of speculation as forecasts suggested his right-wing Conservative Party could be ousted after 14 years in power.

News of the vote came as a surprise to the public, the media and much of Sunak’s own party. The plan is expected to take place in the autumn, ahead of the January 28, 2025 deadline to give the Conservatives more time to turn things around Poll ratings weak They are more than two years behind centre-left Labor.

“Uncertain times require clear plans and bold action,” Sunak, who was soaked by heavy rain at a press conference outside 10 Downing Street on Wednesday, said.

He stressed that recent economic data was an important part of his decision-making, telling the BBC’s Today program on Thursday that inflation was “back to normal”, the economy was growing and wages were growing “sustainably” “.

Data released on Wednesday showed that UK price growth has fallen from a peak of 11.1% in October 2022 to 2.3% in April 2024 after the politically independent Bank of England raised interest rates 14 times in a row.

The British economy fell into a shallow recession in the second half of last year and recorded a growth of 0.6% in the first quarter of 2024.

“I think it’s clear that while there’s still a lot of work to do and people are just starting to feel the benefits, we’ve turned the corner and returned to economic stability,” Sunak said.

Bronwen Maddox, director of the Chatham House think tank, said the election date shocked many conservatives, who had thought the election would be held closer to the November U.S. election.

“I have to infer that (Sunak) thinks this is as good as it gets… You can start to hear signs of an improving economy, with house prices rising and less worries about energy bills, but I’m surprised he hasn’t done that.” Don’t give It takes longer to digest,” Maddox told CNBC by phone.

Although inflation data on Wednesday showed headline interest rates falling sharply closer to the Bank of England’s 2% target, they were still higher than many economists expected.

As a result, market bets on a summer interest rate cut have declined, and it now appears unlikely that the central bank will cut interest rates on June 20, the last meeting before the election.

Maddox said Labor was now expected to focus on attacking the Conservative Party’s 14-year legacy and their own ability to maintain fiscal discipline while maintaining their position. policy agenda Details are relatively sparse.

It will also seek to sidestep conversations about Britain’s post-Brexit relationship with Europe, immigration, the war in Gaza and the current government’s controversial plans. Sending asylum seekers to RwandaAll of this, she added, was highly divisive among its members.

Figures released on Thursday showed net migration to the UK fell 10% in 2023 from a record high, with Home Secretary James Cleverly hailing it as a victory for the government.

“Whatever happens, it’s definitely going to be historic,” Hannah Bunting, a lecturer in British quantitative politics at the University of Exeter and co-director of the Elections Center, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday. election.

She said Labor needed 12.7 per cent of the national vote to win a parliamentary majority – a higher majority than achieved by Tony Blair in 1997 on a wave of public opinion Support the removal of John Major.

“I think this is going to be an election that we talk about for quite some time, whether that’s because Labor wins in a landslide or because the Conservatives are wiped out, as some commentators expect,” Bunting said.

“I’m not 100 per cent convinced of that yet because we had the local vote recently… although the Conservatives did very poorly in these areas, the real winners were the smaller parties and the independents, not Labour. So if that’s the case Also translated into a general election, then a landslide Labor victory looks less certain.