In 2024, chocolate’s main ingredient soared in commodity markets. cocoa Gold started the year at around $4,200 an ounce, then hit an all-time high of over $12,000 an ounce in late April before settling above $9,000.
Factors such as crop diseases, El Niño, farm gate prices and market speculation have all played a role in the historic rise in cocoa prices.
“Supply-side factors remain a major issue and I think they will continue to be so over the next few years,” said Paul Joles, agricultural commodities analyst at Rabobank.
As the chocolate industry grapples with higher input costs and consumers feel the pinch, chocolate suppliers are looking at alternatives.
“If we look at it from a consumer perspective, I would certainly say the worst is yet to come,” Joles said. “In terms of the price increases they’re going to face, even if we see commodity futures pricing come down significantly because we’re probably still going to see price increases on the shop floor in the coming months.”
Cargill is currently considering using alternative cocoa-adjacent ingredients for its chocolate products. The food and beverage company partnered with Voyage Foods in April to produce alternatives.
“Not everyone is saying we need as much cocoa-free chocolate over the next six months because these are legendary and well-loved brands,” Voyage Foods co-founder Adam Maxwell said. So, it’s not just that we’re replacing this ingredient now.”
Watch the video above to learn more about why prices are rising over the long term and what’s next for the industry.
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