The 2024 European Parliament elections could shake up the EU’s traditional mainstream political landscape.
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Europeans are heading to high-profile elections this week that could shake up the EU’s traditional mainstream political landscape.
From June 6 to 9, approximately 400 million people in the 27 EU member states will be eligible to vote for the next batch of 720 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs).
As a wave of Euroscepticism sweeps across the EU, far-right populist parties are set to make significant inroads, with major implications for the EU’s future policy agenda, legislation and wider foreign policy.
Tim Adams, president and CEO of the Institute of International Finance, told CNBC via email: “We are seeing a rise in populist sentiment in Europe and globally, which could produce the most right-wing European Parliament in history. “
Changing the face of the European Parliament
The European Parliament is one of the three core institutions of the European Union, responsible for deciding EU laws and budget. It is made up of MEPs who are elected by each member state and come together to form the European Party Group.
In the past, parliament has been led by overwhelmingly centrist parties. But projected losses for the ruling “grand coalition” of the European People’s Party, Socialists and Democrats and Renew Europe and gains for the far right have called that balance into question.
The latest polls show large seats won by the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), which includes Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni’s Italian Brotherhood and Poland’s Law and Justice party, as well as the radical right represented by French politicians Identity and Democracy (ID) Group.
While a victory for these parties is unlikely to tip the balance of power in the hands of a centrist coalition, it could make it harder to secure a majority in votes on key issues such as Ukraine, defense and the EU’s green agenda.
The French far-right National Rally (RN) party holds a campaign meeting in Paris ahead of the upcoming European Parliament elections on June 2, 2024.
Raul Boyer | AFP | Getty Images
The expected shake-up comes amid a broader right-wing shift in Europe, with two years of war and record high inflation fueling disillusionment with more traditional parties.
“This reflects the long-term decline “Growing support for mainstream parties and for extremist and smaller parties across Europe is leading to an increasingly fragmented European party system at national and European levels,” the European Council on Foreign Relations said in a January report. Report.
“In short, we expect that populist voices, especially from the radical right, are likely to be louder after the 2024 elections than at any time since the European Parliament elections.ent was directly elected for the first time in 1979,” it added.
Several major EU member states, including France, Italy, Hungary, Austria and the Netherlands, appear set to elect members of the European Parliament from anti-European populist parties. While the results will not affect member governments, they could have implications for upcoming national elections.
“If we don’t fill the vacuum in which populists operate, we will never succeed,” Michael Kretschmer, the governor of Saxony in eastern Germany and a member of former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, told CNBC last week. .
Policy differences surrounding Ukraine and the green agenda
While a right-wing majority seems unlikely, a higher proportion of these MEPs could see their parties coalesce around certain issues, potentially delaying or possibly blocking certain legislation.
“The European Parliament vote is no longer entirely dominated by a ‘grand coalition’ of centrist parties. Instead, different coalitions are forming depending on the issues involved,” Teneo analysts said in a report last month.
Environmental policy is a key target for the right, and an anti-climate policy agenda has undermined measures such as the EU Green Deal framework (the EU’s flagship carbon neutrality scheme) and other climate policies. a wave Farmer protests earlier this year highlighted growing friction, with far-right groups pushing a green agenda against agriculture.
A tractor is parked in an Amhagen parking lot during farmers’ demonstrations.
Armin Weigel | Image Alliance | Getty Images
Support for Ukraine may also take a hit, with some current right-wing MEPs expressing frustration with the EU’s continued financial support for the war-torn country. It could also have implications for defense spending and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s ambitions for greater EU-wide integration.
Elsewhere, EU enlargement may also be on hold, with the rise of the right delaying the institutional reforms needed to admit potential members such as Ukraine and Moldova. More immediately, a divided parliament could delay the upcoming appointment of a new president of the European Commission, the EU’s legislative body.
Overcome internal quarrels
Questions remain about how much power the right can wield, given the deep divisions between the ECR and ID and within the organization.
“We believe the outcome is likely to further complicate some political decision-making in the EU, but will not paralyze the EU,” Berenberg Economics said in a note on Friday.
For example, most ECR parties, although highly critical of the EU, have led or participated in the governments of their member states and are used to working within the EU framework. Meanwhile, ID is far more hostile to the EU and its two largest parties remain on the fringes of mainstream politics.
Meanwhile, deep divisions emerged within Germany’s electoral party last month when it expelled the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) over a series of scandals, including controversial comment Speeches by its leading candidates on Germany’s Nazi past.
“These different positions, combined bilateral Quarrel Luigi Scazzieri, a senior fellow at the Center for European Reform, an independent think tank, said in an April report: notes.
Still, concerns remain that the more corrosive effects of the rightward shift will only become more pronounced in the future.
“Their influence is likely to emerge over time as mainstream political forces face pressure to move to the right on issues such as climate policy,” Scazieri added.
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