Right-wing parties across Europe have seen significant increases in support in recent years and are expected to gain record support in the 2024 European Parliament elections.
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LONDON – Populist, far-right parties are likely to have greater influence in European policymaking over the next five years Preliminary results of EU elections Sunday hinted that the parliamentary landscape is being redrawn.
A win for the nationalist Identity and Democracy (ID) party and a loss for the Greens/European Liberal Alliance could leave centrist parties dependent on gaining crucial votes in the 720-seat European Parliament.
Parliament has been led by overwhelmingly centrist parties, which often vote together on issues to win a majority in the 720-seat parliament. In fact, the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) is expected to once again win the most parliamentary seats and maintain its dominance in the lower house.
But the centrist coalition led by the European People’s Party may now need to rely on the support of the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) to pass some legislation, with research firm Eurasia Group describing the ECR as a potential “key player” in a pre-election report “. “
At the same time, bold independents could put pressure on Parliament to change its stance on other contentious issues.
Armida van Rij, senior fellow at the Chatham House think tank Europe Project, speaking ahead of the results, told CNBC that the influence of the far right was “already felt” in the EU, but that this could lead to further consequences.
Here’s how these shifts are affecting EU policy.
migrant
Immigration will remain front and center on the policy agenda of the next parliament, with right-wing parties expected to advocate for tighter border security and a tougher stance on migrants from outside the EU.
However, implementation will remain a key sticking point, with North and South clearly divided over the most credible strategy.
“While there is agreement on the need to curb third-country migration into the EU, Verisk Maplecroft analysts Mario Bikarski and Laurent Balt wrote in a research note on Tuesday consensus, but disagreements remain over the mechanisms to achieve this goal.
green agenda
Climate policy, already under pressure due to a cost-of-living crisis and weak economic growth, may face further headwinds.
Van Riggi said the enactment of the EU’s flagship carbon-neutral scheme, the Green Deal, now faced “real risks” and that parliament had watered down some legislation to appease the right.
A flurry of agricultural policies could avoid further restrictions Farmers protested earlier this year. Meanwhile, analysts say plans to ban the sale of new internal combustion engine cars by 2035 may also be scrapped.
Elsewhere, the EU may shift its focus from renewable energy to supporting cheaper energy supplies, potentially supporting plans for more nuclear power plants or even natural gas fracking, Citi analysts wrote in a note last month.
Ukraine and defense
Support for Ukraine has been questioned due to some EU member states’ ties to Russia.
Dutch ECR member Dorien Rookmaker told CNBC on Friday that she did not expect a change in the position of the new parliament, adding, “I do believe that maintaining peace on the continent is in line with Europe’s Benefit.
Nonetheless, the issue of European defense and its funding sources will be a hot topic, especially if the EU’s common defense budget is discussed.
“Some far-right and far-left parties in Europe have close ties to Russia and China, which could allow them to block more defense spending,” Citi analysts wrote. “But (they) also oppose U.S. influence in Europe, which May lead them to support a more Eurocentric defense architecture.”
industrial strategy
The bloc’s industrial strategy is likely to shift as it seeks a delicate balance amid ongoing differences between close ally the United States and major trading partner China.
Verisk Maplecroft’s Bikarski and Balt said the EU is likely to continue to focus on its high-tech and green industries and continue to implement the 2023 European Chip Act and Critical Raw Materials Act, while possibly taking a tough stance on Chinese imports.
“While the EU will remain an open, trade-reliant economy, the incoming European Commission and Parliament are likely to continue the trend towards increased protectionism and interference in strategic industries,” they wrote.
EU’s eastward enlargement
Elsewhere, EU expansion could face further setbacks as Eurosceptics grow in parliament.
“EU enlargement policy will remain supportive on paper, but weak political will and nationalist domestic politics in many member states may hinder the acceptance of new members during the next Commission term,” Bikkarski and Balter said. “
They added: “This, coupled with the slow progress in accession negotiations among all candidate countries, means that the EU is expected to remain a 27-member bloc by 2029.”
Coordinate correctly
Still, given the divisions that exist within and between the ECP and the Independence Party, it is unclear whether they will succeed in building a cohesive far-right wing to enact key legislation.
As far as ECR is concerned, it has explain It wants to strengthen member states by shrinking EU institutions and cut climate change policies by transforming the EU Green Deal, a set of EU-wide green deals. climate proposals) “on its head.” ID went further, advocating a tougher stance on migration, opposing the euro zone budget and expressing skepticism about Brussels in general.
“Internal bickering may prevent them from turning these gains into greater influence on policy,” Berenberg Economics said in a report last month.
Chatham House’s Van Rieger added by phone: “It depends partly on the far right and how well they can organize themselves to exert influence.”
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