French President Macron.
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Analysts say French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call early national elections after a surge in far-right rivals is a high-risk move and a huge political gamble.
Macron decided to hold an early parliamentary vote after the right-wing National Rally (RN) party, led by Marine Le Pen, Won about 31% of the vote in Sunday’s European Parliament election. That’s more than double the 14.6% of Macron’s centrist pro-European Ennahda party and its allies.
In early trading on Monday, France’s CAC 40 index fell 1.8%, and French bank stocks fell sharply. Led by BNP Paribas and Societe Generale Stoke 600losses, both fell by about 6%. this EUR It also fell by about 0.4% Dollar In the midst of uncertainty.
“This is a crucial moment for clarification,” Macron said in a speech to the nation on Sunday evening announcing the decision to dissolve parliament.
He added: “I have heard your message, your concerns and I will not ignore them… France needs an absolute majority to act in a calm and harmonious way.” The first round of voting will be held on June 30 , the second round of voting will be held on July 7.
his party may fail
As it stands, Macron’s Ennahda Party has 169 seats in the French lower house of parliamentRN has 88 seats out of a total of 577 seats.
Ipsos poll of 4,000 people People asked about their voting intentions in December said RN could win 243-305 seats to gain a majority in parliament.
If we do see an outcome like this in the upcoming election, Le Pen will likely become prime minister and have a major say in France’s domestic and economic policy, although as president Macron will continue to be responsible for foreign policy, justice and national defense.
Daniel Hamilton, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, described Macron’s decision as a “huge event” in the broader vote in the European Parliament over the past few days and could easily lead to a sea change in the French government. Macron “basically has to govern with his old enemy”.
“His gamble is to use the three years before the next presidential election to show that they’ve done a really bad job and that voters will reward him in some way, so it’s a huge political gamble that will create a lot of uncertainty in France. ,” he told CNBC on Monday.
Antonio Barroso, deputy director of research at the consulting firm Teneo, said in a note on Sunday night that “while a lot can happen in the coming weeks, the information available suggests that Macron believes he may Lose an election”. The best of a bad political situation. “
Barroso believes Macron may “try to use the shock of the National Assembly’s resounding victory in the European Parliament elections to mobilize centrist voters and limit Le Pen’s chances of gaining an absolute majority in the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament.” “RNs may still be able to lead a minority government, but a divided Parliament will make it difficult for an RN-led government to pass legislation,” he said.
Barroso believes that Macron’s reason for calling the polls early may be to “expose the party’s inexperience in government in time and expose them to politically painful decisions before the 2027 presidential election.”
For example, he noted that if Le Pen’s party is to lead the next government, it must approve spending cuts or tax increases (or both) as part of the autumn 2025 budget to reduce France’s huge budget deficit (5.5% of GDP in 2023).
“This will be an important test for Le Pen as she increasingly portrays herself as financially responsible for attracting center-right voters,” he noted.
Is it arrogance or sensitivity?
Analysts questioned whether Macron’s decision showed political nous and strategy, or would open him up to more accusations of arrogance and a lack of understanding of voters’ concerns about domestic issues such as immigration, public services, the cost of living and jobs.
“The question that everyone has been asking all night is, ‘Why? Why would he do this?'” Douglas Yates, a professor at the American Graduate School in Paris, told CNBC on Monday.
“Either his critics are right and he’s so arrogant that he doesn’t understand how obnoxious he is and he’s going to be beaten in (some form of) divine justice, or he’s a clever strategist , he calculated that he could win or, even if he lost these elections, his long-term strategy would benefit,” Yates said.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank described Macron’s decision as a “big gamble”, arguing that the president “may want to regain some momentum and hope that a significant part of the European Parliament result will be a protest vote and encourage other centrist parties to help unite” restrictions Le Pen’s accusation.
“His other hope is that if RN takes a bigger role in government, their appeal might wane before the next presidential election in 2027. So (it’s) a big gamble.”
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