On May 22, 2024, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei paid tribute to the late Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Amir who were killed in a helicopter crash on the campus of Tehran University in Tehran, Iran. Abdullahian and other officials conducted funeral prayers.
Iranian Leader’s Press Office | Anadolu | Getty Images
Iran will hold early elections on June 28 after former Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi died suddenly in a helicopter crash. But analysts said the vote was neither free nor likely to bring any major changes to the country.
The election will be held against the following backdrop: Iran’s economy has been hit hard, widespread popular dissatisfaction and a crackdown on dissent. The county is also processing high inflation, Severe sanctions from the Westgrowing tensions with the United States, Iran’s nuclear enrichment activities accelerateand the Israel-Hamas war.
Iran’s ultra-conservative Guardian Council, which ultimately decides who can go to the polls, has approved the names of six candidates running for president. Most are hard-liners with staunchly anti-Western stances, with one candidate representing the reformist camp. The Council disqualified all women registered as candidates.
“Six of the 80 candidates passed the review process of the Guardian Council. Of these six, five are real hard-liners and one is a symbolic reformist,” said Benham, a senior researcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Behnam ben Taleblu told CNBC.
He described Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as the country’s “only important ‘electorate'”.
Ben Talebulu said he was “looking for continuity, not change”, adding that half of the approved candidates had been sanctioned by Western governments.
“Relatively predictable” results
For some Iran watchers, the upcoming elections provide the country’s government with an opportunity to “correct course” or work to rebuild relations with the Iranian public and improve its image.
“Especially in the wake of the protests, repression and general rise in public discontent that has become almost a hallmark of Lacey’s time in office. The leadership here… has an option to at least create a form of competitive elections,” Argus said Media Middle East Gulf Editor Nader Itayim.
Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi gave a television interview on May 7, 2024 in Tehran, Iran.
Iranian Presidency | Wana | Reuters
But with the announcement of approved candidates on Sunday, “those hopes have essentially been dashed,” he said. “In fact, it’s still the hardliners who lose.”
Lacey was elected in the summer of 2021, when turnout for a presidential election was the lowest since the founding of the Islamic Republic in 1979.
Lacey, 63, is a harsh critic of the West. After a young Iranian Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini, died in September 2022 in the custody of Iran’s morality police, Iran severely cracked down on the protest movement that swept the country.
Turnout is expected to be low again as many Iranians plan to boycott the vote, angry at a system they say is rigged and ineffective in improving their lives during an economic crisis.
The League of Secular Republic and Human Rights of Iran said in a statement Call for “active boycott” A “show election” for the president.
Iran’s government often blames the country’s difficulties on the repression of U.S.-led sanctions.
Previously, Iran’s March parliamentary election had a turnout of 41%, the lowest turnout for a legislative campaign in the Islamic Republic’s history.
‘Leadership is not that concerned about turnout’
Sanan Wakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, said that while Khamenei and other leaders have urged a referendum, proving its legitimacy through turnout no longer appears to be a concern for the Islamic Republic.
“The Islamic Republic recognizes that there is a huge gap between the expectations and demands of the system and its people, divergent over social liberalization, economic trajectories and political opportunities, which the system clearly recognizes it cannot bridge – and therefore it is no longer Prioritize traditional avenues of electoral legitimacy, as in past elections,” she said.
“The government is trying to present a competitive election but has clearly crafted a candidate list that favors a range of conservatives, all in an effort to ensure a relatively predictable outcome.”
Itayim of the Middle East Gulf agrees. “If the past few elections have shown us anything, it’s that leadership isn’t that fussed about turnout,” he said.
“They were hoping for a higher turnout, but if that didn’t happen, no problem. Ultimately, they seemed satisfied enough with how things were going, and they didn’t feel any imminent threat to their power from the administration.” Growing dissatisfaction, protests, etc.
Iranian women cast their votes at a polling station in Tehran on March 1, 2024, to elect members of parliament and an important religious institution.
Atakenare | AFP
Iranians who have decided to vote will go to the polls on June 28, with the possibility of a second round if the results are very close.
Itaim said that many Iranians believe that the purpose of the 2021 presidential election is to ensure that Khamenei’s protégé Raisi wins. The 85-year-old supreme leader now looks bolder and more secure than ever.
Khamenei “seems to be on this path of consolidating power, whether in the hard-line camp or the conservative camp, almost no matter what,” Itayim said.
“From where I stand, given who will be running this time, it appears that the upcoming elections will take Iran further down the same path.”
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