India has vigorously promoted infrastructure construction and has made significant progress in the connectivity and modernization of roads, railways and airports.
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Over the past two years, Prime Minister Modi has spoken confidently of his ambitious goals: Make India a developed economy by 2047.
All eyes are now on Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party-led alliance to see if they can maintain the economic momentum, Continue to improve the lives of millions of people This is their third consecutive term.
Confidence in the BJP has plummeted. Modi’s ruling party failed to win an absolute majority in the lower house of parliament for the first time since 2014 and is now forced to rely on allies in its coalition.
Reema Bhattacharya said: “The government must find common ground and build consensus on multiple fronts, not only with coalition partners but also with other stakeholder groups, to advance key legislation in parliament and calm national concerns. Anti-incumbency sentiment is growing internally.
“Failure to do so could also result in further political setbacks for the ruling party in the next round of state elections scheduled for later this year,” she warned.
Analysts say a Modi-led alliance is unlikely to undermine India’s economy and development. However, they noted that the new government must now restore the confidence of the people and ensure that India’s position in the global South is maintained.
The new government has yet to outline its main priorities. However, analysts predict that these four areas will be high on the agenda.
1. Infrastructure promotion
India has experienced Massive infrastructure development and significant progress in connecting and modernizing highways, railways and airports.
Last year, consulting firm Ernst & Young predicted India will be a $26 trillion economy by 2047and emphasized that building the country’s infrastructure capabilities will be key to achieving this goal.
Samir Kapadia, chief executive of India Index and head of Vogel management, said: “Since Modi took office, he has gone all out to build ports, railways and various hard infrastructure to improve business mobility. He will redouble his efforts in this regard.
India still lags behind China in this regard and more needs to be done if it wants to pursue a high-growth trajectory to continue attracting foreign investors.
In the interim budget in February, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman expected capital expenditure to increase by 11.1% to 11.11 trillion rupees ($133.9 billion) in fiscal 2025, mainly focusing on railways and airport construction.
New quadrupeds are placed after construction of a coastal road is completed ahead of the monsoon in Mumbai, India, June 11, 2024.
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But improving connectivity between cities shouldn’t be the only area of focus, said Santanu Sengupta, India economist at Goldman Sachs.
“In addition to building physical infrastructure, India needs to be steadfast in structural reforms… It needs to think about land and free up land to build more infrastructure like factories,” Sengupta told CNBC. This will drive job growth in the field, he added.
However, analysts stress that the government may face resistance in this regard, as Modi’s weakening power may make project land acquisition more cumbersome.
“Achieving these goals may be more difficult if national-level parties have quasi-veto power due to coalition structures,” said Richard Rossow, senior adviser and president of U.S.-India Policy Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
2. Strengthen manufacturing industry
Employees at Padget Electronics, a subsidiary of Dixon Technologies, work on a mobile phone assembly line on Friday, March 22, 2024, in Noida, India.
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Forecasts from Counterpoint Research and the Electronics and Semiconductor Association of India indicate India’s semiconductor industry will be worth US$64 billion by 2026a threefold increase from US$23 billion in 2019.
“This could become India’s biggest breadwinner in the next five to 10 years,” Kapadia said. “Modi strongly believes that if India can get into semiconductor manufacturing, and if he does it right, India can become a Economies that will be fussed over.”
3. In response to high unemployment
“There is already a mismatch between the skill levels of the country’s workers and employers’ demand for high innovation. That will certainly persist through this decade and possibly even into the 2030s,” she told CNBC.
India’s unemployment rate rose to 8.1% in April from 7.4% in March. Center for Monitoring Indian Economy.
A survey conducted in April by the Center for the Study of Developing Societies ahead of the election showed unemployment as the top concern 27% of the 10,000 respondents said. More than half (62%) of respondents said finding a job has become more difficult in the past five years of Modi’s second term.
Construction workers in Mumbai, India, June 5, 2024.
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Analysts stress that it is now the responsibility of the new coalition government to improve local education standards and skills training to ensure people are gainfully employed in the right industries.
Vivek Prasad, market leader, PwC India, said: “While those with higher education and practical experience are expected to find jobs in the industry, creating broad and equitable employment opportunities needs to be more inclusive sexual method.
Prasad told CNBC that the new education policy and vocational training will “engage individuals at all levels of the manufacturing value chain and ensure that the benefits of economic progress are shared across society,” adding that promoting female employment is crucial to driving India’s economic growth Crucial.
4. Increase foreign investment
From veteran emerging market investor Mark Mobius to global strategist David Roach, market experts remain bullish on India.
According to the World Federation of Exchanges, India’s National Stock Exchange has a total market capitalization of US$4.9 trillion, ranking third in the Asia-Pacific region. India’s market capitalization is expected to grow to It will reach US$40 trillion in the next 20 years.
Benchmark indices Nifty 50 and Sensex have performed strongly this year, rising 8% and 7% respectively so far this year, London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) data showed.
However, analysts told CNBC that foreign direct investment needs to pick up the pace to further drive economic growth and development.
Goldman Sachs’ Sengupta said foreign direct investment in India was relatively weak last year as high U.S. interest rates made the private equity financing environment difficult.
“Once interest rates soften and financing conditions become easier, India may attract more foreign direct investment inflows from the United States,” Sengupta told CNBC.
Prabhat Ojha, partner and head of Asia client practice at Cambridge Associates, noted that the ease of investing in India “still has a long way to go” in order to continue attracting foreign capital.
He advised investors to focus more on India’s banking sector – which currently has good growth qualities and capital allocation practices.
“Indian banks did have a cleanup from 2017 to 2019 and they are in a very healthy position today,” Ojha told CNBC.