Prime Minister Rishi Sunak speaks to farmers during a campaign event on a farm near Barnstaple on June 18, 2024 in North Devon, England. North Devon has been held by the Conservatives since the 2015 general election.
Lionel | Getty Images News | Getty Images
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak could become the country’s first sitting prime minister to lose his seat at a general election, according to a shocking new poll.
The main opposition centre-left Labor Party is reportedly expected to win as many as 516 seats in the July 4 election analyze Market research firm Savanta conducted the research in partnership with Electoral Calculus and The Telegraph on Wednesday.
If correct, the upcoming vote would give Labor an absolute majority of 382 votes, far exceeding former Prime Minister Tony Blair’s historic victory in 1997.
The ruling centre-right Conservatives are expected to win 53 seats, down from 365 seats in the 2019 election, while the centrist Liberal Democrats are expected to be evenly matched with the Conservatives to become the official opposition party in the next parliament, forecasts say.
Analysis shows the left-leaning Scottish National Party will win eight seats, while Wales’ pro-independence party Plaid Cymru is expected to win four.
Savanta said 175 of the 632 seats up for grabs in two weeks were now “evenly matched.”
These include a range of senior Conservative seats, including Sunak’s seats of Richmond and Northallerton in North Yorkshire, Home Secretary James Cleverley’s seat of Braintree in Essex, and the Treasury Minister Jeremy Hunt holds the Surrey seat of Godalming and Ashe.
I just don’t believe for one second that the Conservatives will be wiped out. I just don’t believe it.
Alistair Campbell
Former Communications Director of the Labor Party
Savanta said it interviewed 17,812 people aged 18 and older online between June 7 and 18. The poll uses multiple regression and post-stratification models (sometimes called MRP) to estimate voting intentions nationwide.
MRP uses voters’ age, gender and other demographic characteristics to predict vote share in each precinct and thus the likely winner of each seat and the overall outcome of the election.
“I just don’t believe it”
Savanta’s Analysis This echoes a series of polls in recent weeks that have generally put Labor on course for a historic electoral victory.
Sunak has previously played down concerns about the Conservatives’ poll numbers. explain Late last month, “the only poll that matters is the July 4th poll.”
Alistair Campbell, Blair’s former Labor communications director, said on Thursday he did not expect the Conservatives to suffer a landslide defeat at next month’s election.
“I don’t believe for one second that the Conservatives are going to be wiped out,” Campbell told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.” “I just don’t believe it.”
“For Labor to win a majority they have to get a bigger swing than they did in 1997 and Clement Attlee in 1945,” Campbell said. “I just think there’s something very, very wrong with these polls.”
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