Cars parked in the parking lot of a Chevrolet dealership on June 20, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois. CDK Global, a provider of software that helps dealers manage sales and services, suffered a cyber attack that paralyzed workflow at about 15,000 dealers in the United States and Canada.
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DETROIT – U.S. auto sales are expected to rise 2.9% annually in the first half of this year, but there are concerns the industry may not be able to maintain that momentum in the final six months of the year.
Rising vehicle inventory levels, increasing incentives and growing uncertainty in the second half of the year surrounding the economy, interest rates and the U.S. presidential election Cox Automotive.
The automotive data and research firm expects second-half sales growth to slow to 15.7 million units by the end of 2024, up about 1.3% compared with 2023. Consumers lead to more profitable sales.
“Overall, we expect softness in the coming months,” Cox chief economist Jonathan Smoak said in a mid-year review briefing on Tuesday. “We are basically making some assumptions that we We can’t quite maintain the pace we’re seeing, but we don’t expect a collapse either.”
beneficial to consumers
The situation has largely been good for consumers, some of whom have been waiting years to buy a new car amid an unprecedented supply of new cars and record prices amid the coronavirus pandemic.
They are a headwind for automakers, many of which have posted record profits due to strong demand for new vehicles and low supply during the global health crisis. Wall Street has Vehicle pricing and profit challenges are forecast for most automakers compared to the record or near-record levels of the past few years.
On May 31, 2024, a new Tesla vehicle was parked at a Tesla dealership in Corte Madera, California.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images
“There is a lot of uncertainty going forward, which may make it difficult to continue the recent sales success,” Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox, said in a news release. “We are concerned that it will not be sustained in the second half of the year. Growth so far.”
The rental, commercial and leasing industry is showing signs of double-digit growth, and Cox expects the overall industry’s retail share to drop 9 percentage points from 2021, to about 79%.
winners and losers
The sales “winners” in the first half of this year are expected to be General Motors, Toyota Automotive and Honda cars, According to Cox.
If Toyota can continue to grow, Chesbrough said, it could once again challenge General Motors as the top-selling U.S. automaker.
including poor performers Teslasales are expected to drop 14.3%, and StrantisIt is expected to fall by 16.5% by June. Honda beat the Stellantis in U.S. sales in the first half of this year, pushing the Chrysler and Jeep parent company to sixth place from its most recent fourth place.
Stellantis Chief Executive Carlos Tavares said earlier this month that the company was correcting “arrogant” mistakes he and the company had made in the automaker’s U.S. operations that had hurt sales. declines, inventory bulges and investor concerns.
“The increase in supply means we are officially bidding farewell to the seller’s market we have had for the past four years… which means new car sales and dealer profitability are further deteriorating,” Smoak said.
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