December 27, 2024

DataTrek Research's Nick Colas: Energy stocks are only a real hedge in oil crisis

Crude oil futures rose on Wednesday as investors awaited the latest U.S. inventory data to see how gasoline demand holds up over the summer.

Oil prices retreated on Tuesday as recent gains paused, but West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude rose 5.9% and 4.9% respectively this month as analysts expected summer fuel demand to pick up after a weak start to the season.

Here are today’s energy prices:

  • West Texas Intermediate Oil August contract: $81.53 per barrel, up 70 cents, or 0.87%. U.S. oil prices have risen 13.8% so far this year.
  • Brent August contract: $85.66 per barrel, up 65 cents, or 0.76%. Year to date, the global benchmark is ahead by 11.2%.
  • RBOB gasoline July contract: $2.53 per gallon, up 0.76%. So far this year, gasoline prices have risen 20.5%.
  • natural gas July contract: $2.71 per gallon, down 1.74%. Year to date, natural gas leads by 7.7%.

Traders are awaiting the latest U.S. oil and gasoline inventory data due to be released by the Energy Department at 10:30 a.m. to confirm whether demand is strong.

John Evans, an analyst at oil broker PVM, said in a report on Wednesday that “the general view is that demand will increase in the summer, with OPEC+ production cuts fully in place until October, global and economic OE stocks should be depleted.

“So a convincing decline in U.S. stocks would add significantly to that optimism,” Evans said.

Analysts polled by Reuters expected U.S. oil and natural gas inventories to fall by 2.9 million barrels and 1 million barrels respectively last week.

Traders are also concerned about the situation on the Israeli-Lebanese border. Israel and the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah have recently threatened war after months of fighting on the border.

There are concerns that an Israeli attack on Lebanon could trigger a direct confrontation with OPEC member Iran, potentially jeopardizing crude supplies.

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