On June 21, 2024, as cross-border conflicts continued between the Israeli army and Hezbollah militants, an Israeli airstrike hit a house in the village of Shyam in southern Lebanon, close to the border between Lebanon and Israel, sending out billowing black smoke.
Rabbi So | AFP | Getty Images
Almost daily fighting on Lebanon’s northern border with Israel has intensified at an alarming rate in recent weeks, escalating the threat between Israel and Hezbollah and forcing the United States to call for an urgent diplomatic solution.
An all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah (the Iranian-backed Lebanese Shia militant group and political organization described by the United States and Britain as a terrorist organization) would be devastating to both sides.
The danger of war between Israel and Hezbollah, a much larger and better-armed fighting force than Hamas, is so acute that U.S. President Joe Biden last week sent one of his Senior aide Amos Hochstein traveled to Israel and Lebanon to promote reconciliation between Israel and Lebanon.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters on Tuesday that “diplomacy is by far the best way to prevent further escalation,” stressing that “we are urgently pursuing a diplomatic agreement to restore lasting calm on Israel’s northern border and To enable civilians to return home safely”. There are homes on both sides of the Israeli-Lebanese border. “
Hezbollah has launched thousands of rockets Israel has been firing rockets into Israel for nearly nine months, since it launched war against the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza on October 7. Ten civilians were killed, while Israeli shelling has killed about 300 Hezbollah fighters. According to one report, there are militants and about 80 civilians in Lebanon. Reuters statistics.
At least 150,000 inhabitants of southern Lebanon and northern Israel They have been evacuated and displaced from their homes due to frequent cross-border fires.
“An all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah would be a catastrophic event for the region, including Israel and Lebanon,” Victor Tricaud, senior analyst at consultancy Control Risks, told CNBC.
“All it takes is a stray rocket”
The most extreme war scene? Trico described a massive Israeli ground invasion and aerial bombardment of Lebanon, intense bombing by Hezbollah, regular direct attacks on Israeli civilian infrastructure, and possibly even direct Iranian involvement, which would have a significant impact on the global economy.
A conflict of this magnitude would result in severe damage or destruction of national infrastructure (such as water, electricity, and communications) as well as homes and military targets on both sides.
On June 12, 2024, Hezbollah launched a missile attack on the northern Israeli city of Safed, sending smoke and flames rising.
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images
But for now, that remains a “relatively distant scenario,” Terry Cowder said, and “a number of escalatory steps are likely to be taken before the confrontation reaches such an intense level.”
Leaders from both sides have said they do not want an all-out war. Their tit-for-tat attacks over the past few months, while sometimes deadly, are still widely seen as carefully calculated to avoid serious escalation.
As long as a Meteor rocket causes heavy casualties and the opponent retaliates in the same way, the situation will get out of control.
Nimrod Novick
Research Fellow, Israel Policy Forum
At the same time, Lebanon is in the midst of an economic and political crisis, and its infrastructure is completely unprepared for a new war. A large-scale Israeli invasion of Lebanon would be disastrous, especially in southern Lebanon – a key Hezbollah stronghold – posing a serious threat to the militant group’s popularity and support there.
“Today, both sides want to ‘teach’ the other that under the assumed rules of engagement of limited combat, it can inflict greater pain on the other side,” said Nimrod Novick, a researcher at the Israel Policy Forum, to which the Israel Policy Forum is dedicated. To promote strategic cooperation between the two countries.
“However, it only takes one Meteor rocket to cause heavy casualties and an adversary to retaliate in kind, and things can spiral out of control.”
Hezbollah: 10 times more powerful than Hamas
Hezbollah is considered one of the best-armed non-state groups in the world. It is estimated to have ten times the military capabilities of Hamas, and most wars between Israel and Hezbollah have ended with no clear victory for either side.
However, in 2006, a 34-day war between the two hostile countries saw Israeli ground forces fighting in Lebanon. Hezbollah claimed victory, but Israel regarded it as a strategic failure. Compared with 2006, the armed organization is now significantly stronger and equipped with more advanced weapons.
On January 14, 2024, in Kerbet Selm, southern Lebanon, Hezbollah movement leader Hassan Nasrallah gave a televised speech, and a man waved the Hezbollah movement flag. A week of commemorations since the killing of top field commander Wissam Tawil.
Mahmoud Zayat | AFP | Getty Images
Hezbollah fighters “have become increasingly battle-hardened after participating in the war in Syria, and will be able to exploit asymmetric warfare tactics very effectively due to the movement’s long-standing control of territory in southern Lebanon,” Tricod said.
He added that the toll on the Israeli population from a full-scale war “would be much higher than in 2006.”
Miri Eisin, a retired Israeli Defense Forces colonel who is now the director of the Israel International Institute for Counter-Terrorism, elaborated on the threat posed by Hezbollah’s arsenal in an all-out war.
“We are talking about weapons that we have never seen in the region,” she said, describing how Hezbollah could use mortars, rockets, missiles, drone swarms, suicide drones and even ground troops to destroy Israel defense.
At the same time, “Israel will attack a large number of Hezbollah targets,” Essien said. “Hezbollah has surface-to-air missiles that they rarely use, and they have missiles from Iran and Russia.”
She said that despite Israel’s powerful air defense system, there would still be “the ability to penetrate into Israel, which means we will cause casualties in the heart of Israel.”
In this context, U.S. support is critical to Israel; it would also raise the stakes if other Iranian-backed proxy groups step in and attack U.S. assets.
recent reports An anonymous U.S. official was quoted as saying the Biden administration would help Israel defend itself against Hezbollah retaliation. This could include maintaining a stockpile of Iron Dome air defense systems, providing intelligence, and possibly striking Hezbollah itself if Israel comes under heavy attack. CNBC has reached out to the U.S. Department of Defense for comment.
The Israel Policy Forum’s Novick still believes that diplomatic avenues for de-escalation and solutions have not yet been exhausted.
“Indeed,” he said, “the tragic irony is that the greater the risk of escalation, the more likely the parties are to make room for diplomacy. This is a classic ‘too close’ situation.”
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