An aerial view shows a Philippine navy ship that has been stranded since 1999 to assert Philippine sovereignty over Second Thomas Shoal.
Jay DeLeto | AFP | Getty Images
Policy analysts say China has stepped up its aggression against the Philippines in disputed areas of the South China Sea, raising questions about U.S. deterrence.
Last week, the Chinese Coast Guard seized two Philippine ships on a resupply mission to the Second Thomas Shoal outpost in the Spratly Islands. causing serious injury to a naval personnelAccording to Philippine officials. Both Manila and Beijing claim sovereignty over the shoal.
There have been numerous clashes in the area over the past few months. Experts say the latest incident represents an escalation and shows the limits of this approach. The U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty was signed in 1951.
“The failure of multilateral dialogue to prevent (the latest confrontation) shows the ambiguity in the commitments conveyed by both parties,” said Chester Cabalza, president and founder of the Philippine think tank International Cooperation on Development and Security.
Last year, the Philippines and the United States released new “Bilateral Defense Guide ”, reiterated that an “armed attack” on Philippine ships in the South China Sea would invoke the United States’ mutual defense obligations
China, for its part, has been careful not to use guns to trigger multi-party talks, instead adopting a “grey zone” strategy on Second Thomas Shoal, which is coercive action that does not amount to armed conflict. These measures reportedly include the use of Water cannons and ramming philippine ship.
America’s “grey zone” conundrum
Beijing’s action was aimed at halting resupply missions to a rusting Philippine ship that has been stranded on the shoal since 1999, as the vessel’s presence appeared to validate Philippine claims to the reef.
Cabalza said that unless Manila and Washington did more to bolster deterrence, Beijing would continue to employ a “grey zone” strategy to try to win the shoals and other disputed areas in the Philippines.
“If the United States really wants to help the Philippines in its strategic and asymmetric war with China, then the use of these tactics should be classified as armed attack (in MDT),” he said.
GP: On March 5, 2024, in the South China Sea, Philippine Coast Guard personnel passed a Chinese Coast Guard ship in a rubber boat while performing a supply mission to the Second Thomas Shoal garrison.
Ezra Akayan | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Richard Heydarian, policy adviser and senior lecturer in international affairs at the University of the Philippines, said the expanded definition of “armed attack” in the treaty could include “any intentional act that causes injury or death to Filipinos.”
These guidelines are consistent with Explanation of MDT in the report Last year, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command was unclassified.
However, Heydarian said the Philippines’ lukewarm response to last week’s clashes could be a sign of its concerns about invoking a mutual defense treaty.
“The Philippine government faces a huge dilemma. It wants greater assurances from the United States, but it may not get that, and it also wants to avoid unnecessary escalation,” Heydarian said.
He added: “For the Philippines and the United States, it sends a signal that the Philippine military has the right to use live ammunition to defend itself and is subject to sanctions, and China’s use of live ammunition will immediately trigger multi-party dialogue.”
However, Abdulrahman Yacob, a fellow in the Lowy Institute’s Southeast Asia Program, said the United States was unlikely to expand the scope of the defense deal because doing so could plunge the two sides into a wider military conflict.
self-reliance
Matteo Piacentini, a China and Indo-Pacific analyst at the Italian Geopolitical Organization, said that while conducting a “calm assessment of the risks of non-involvement by the United States,” the Philippines will also seek to strengthen its own deterrence and strategies to safeguard its territorial claims.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said Thursday that while the recent incident in the shoals was not an “armed attack,” the country Need to “do more” Rather than protesting against China’s actions.
On March 5, 2024, a Chinese coast guard ship fired water cannon at the Unaiza, a Philippine Navy chartered ship in the South China Sea. The ship was performing a routine supply mission for troops stationed at Second Thomas Shoal.
Ezra Akayan | Getty Images News | Getty Images
“The Philippines will continue to resupply the Sierra Madre and want to invest in more outposts in its exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea…China will not give up on the illusion; what Manila is trying to do is not give up on its own,” Pasentini said.
The Philippine Defense Secretary reiterated that the military will Not announcing its supply mission Get to the shallows early. Jacobs of the Lowy Institute said this could help China outmaneuver Beijing while avoiding direct confrontation.
The country has also been working hard Strengthen your own defense capabilities in the South China Sea and U.S. support.
What’s the danger?
Geopolitica’s Paisentini said Second Thomas Shoal is emblematic of how great powers are engaging in Asia’s security architecture, with countries like the Philippines increasingly turning to the United States and other countries to bolster deterrence and security.
He added: “Not intervening (if China becomes more aggressive) would be a huge blow not only to U.S.-Philippine relations, but also to relations between the United States and other key regional allies.”
Experts told CNBC that from China’s perspective, the shoal represents China’s ability to enforce territorial claims under the “nine-dash line” and delegitimize rulings by organizations such as the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. In 2016, it was determined that Second Thomas Shoal belongs to the Philippines.
It also wants to prevent the United States from using the Philippines as a key part of the “first island chain” – the chain of islands that includes Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines and parts of Indonesia. considered to be of strategic importance Researcher Mohammad Fazal said this was an attempt to curb the influence of the People’s Liberation Army.
The researcher at the S. S. S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore added that “each ally and partner is likely to be watching the level of U.S. commitment to its military alliance and planning ahead if that commitment falters.”
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