On January 31, 2024, in London, England, on the fourth anniversary of the United Kingdom’s official departure from the European Union, pro-EU demonstrators protested against Brexit outside Parliament.
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Eight years ago, nearly 52% of British voters voted to leave the European Union, a momentous decision that divided friends, family and the country.
But to a lesser extent, that remains the case, with polls suggesting the same vote now could produce a different outcome, with voters questioning whether life is really better outside economic and political union.
Still, “we’re where we are” is the attitude of many Britons, with parties of all political hues vowing to “make the most of it” in the years between the referendum and actual Brexit in January 2020.
But if Labor – a party that opposes Brexit but has pledged to “respect the will of the British people” – wins the upcoming UK general election on July 4, as polls suggest, some analysts expect a rift between the EU and the UK Frozen relationships will thaw and, perhaps, even be reconciled.
For its part, Labor is approaching the thorny topic of Brexit and any post-election relationship with the EU with caution, keen not to scare the horses – potential swing voters – before July 4.
Instead, Labor said it would not seek to rejoin the single market or customs union, features of the EU’s economic framework that facilitates trade between member states, but said it wanted to improve relations with Brussels.
With Labour’s support, the UK will remain outside the EU. But to seize the opportunities ahead, we must make Brexit work. We will recalibrate our relationship and seek to deepen our relationships with our European friends, neighbors and allies. This does not mean redrawing past divisions. There will be no return to the single market, customs union or freedom of movement
Instead, the party said it wants fewer trade restrictions and a new veterinary protocol that would ease inspections of agricultural products (such as health certificates for products of animal origin, which would require a veterinary signature). It also said it wanted to reduce barriers for touring artists and musicians and agree on mutual recognition of professional qualifications “to help open markets for UK services exporters”.
The truck arrives at the Port of Dover in Kent.
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Labor has remained silent on developing potential post-election plans for the EU, Britain’s biggest trading partner, in large part because of its eagerness to target disaffected Tory voters.
Voter polls have been pointing to a significant victory for the party, suggesting it could get around 40% of the vote, compared with 20% for the incumbent Conservatives, led by pro-Brexit Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
About 16% of the vote is expected to go to the Reform UK Party, led by Nigel Farage, a politician on the fringes of British politics , has never served as a member of Parliament but was arguably the rocket fuel behind Brexit.
hard ball
While Labor will seek to improve relations with the EU if it wins the election, analysts say the bloc is unlikely to abandon itself to make life in the UK more pleasant. “Carefully select” the beneficial parts of its former EU membership that it wishes to retain.
After all, the EU has its own problems, with the rise of far-right governments and tensions within and between the EU. It is also grappling with questions about its global economic status, undocumented immigration and the war on its doorstep in Ukraine.
“We will have a British government that wants to change the relationship (with the EU), but whether that will succeed is another matter,” John Curtice, Britain’s top pollster, told CNBC.
“What they want to do is soften the relationship while still being outside of any former institutions, and the question is to what extent the unions feel interested in adapting to that…Partly because they have other things to worry about, partly because they have other things to worry about, and partly The reason is that they may just think: ‘Okay, you made the bed, you just lie on it.
Nonetheless, Curtis believes there is a common interest in finding a joint strategy as the large numbers of undocumented migrants continue to enter Europe and cross the English Channel into the UK.
“They may think it is in their interest to reach an agreement on how we deal with migrants from the EU. Perhaps, as has been suggested in the past, only if we are willing to accept that we will have to take part in a Europe-wide scheme involving the resettlement of migrants from the Mediterranean will There’s a quid pro quo,” he said.
Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer speaks ahead of the UK general election on July 4, 2024.
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Matt Beach, director of the Center for British Politics at the University of Hull, said he believed Keir Starmer was seeking more than reconciliation with the EU, which he believed would be a betrayal of the democratic vote to leave.
“I think Keir Starmer’s heartbeat will be to return Britain to Europe and trample on the democratic will of the British people,” he told CNBC last week.
“I think Starmer and others think joining the EU has made Britain somehow more moral. I don’t think that’s right, and I don’t think most people in this country think that’s right either. “
CNBC contacted Labor for response to the comments, which pointed to its stated position on the EU.
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