This photo, taken on June 16, 2024, shows the “Dragon’s Teeth” defenses installed by the Ukrainian army in the Donetsk region during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Rome Pilipe | AFP | Getty Images
Bilarhari Kausikan, Singapore’s former ambassador to Russia, said a Russian war in Ukraine could result in Ukraine splitting into two, like North and South Korea.
(Before 1945, North Korea was a unified country. However, after World War II, North Korea was split into two parts. After the Korean War from 1950 to 1953, neither the Communist-backed North Korea nor the United Nations-backed South Korea could recover. The entire peninsula.
Kauskan said earlier this week at an outlook event hosted by Private Bank Vice President Bank that if former U.S. President Donald Trump returns to the White House, he may do “some dramatic things” on Ukraine to put the Distinguish yourself from the previous administration.
Trump’s re-election chances The stock moved higher after he survived an assassination attempt on Saturday.
The former president and Republican presidential candidate himself has repeatedly boasted that he can End war in Ukraine ‘within 24 hours’ No pledge of aid to Ukraine when asked Interview with CNN in May 2023.
In March, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban stated Trump had told him he would cut off U.S. military aid to Ukraine to end the conflict with Russia.
Kausikan, Singapore’s senior diplomat, did not elaborate on what Trump’s “dramatic” move was, but said his view was that “Europe cannot deter Russia and therefore cannot support Ukraine in any substantial way unless the United States does not intervene.” . its back. “
European countries, particularly NATO members, have had tense relations with the former president, who has repeatedly threatened to pull the United States out of the European Union. NATO if member fails to meet spending guidelines Spend 2% of GDP on defense.
In February, Trump warned NATO allies that he would “encourage” Russia to “do whatever it wants” against a member that does not meet its defense spending target of at least 2% of GDP.
He also recounted an incident in which he claimed he told NATO leaders that if they did not meet this spending target, he would not protect them from a Russian invasion.
“This gives Trump tremendous leverage,” Kausikan said Wednesday. “Even if he suggests that U.S. deterrence won’t apply to Ukraine, that changes everything.”
Kauskan said Trump’s approach could force a truce – an agreement to stop the fighting but not necessarily end the war – in Ukraine, which could lead to the division of Ukraine.
At present, since the failure of Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive in June 2023, the Ukrainian frontline has not shifted significantly.
“The model in my mind is what’s happening in South Korea. North Korea is still legally at war, North and South, but there’s a truce and a divided country. I think that’s the end state in Ukraine.”
North and South Korea are officially still at war because an armistice was signed in 1953, not a peace treaty.
Impact on Europe
What would happen to the wider European region if Ukraine was forced to sue for peace?
“I think Europe is in trouble,” Kauskan said. “I don’t think a truce will necessarily end U.S. arms supplies to Ukraine.”
“Why would (Trump) stop? The (U.S.) defense industry is doing great business, but he’s going to make the Europeans pay for it. Because why would he give it away for free?” he added.
European countries may have to increase their own defense budgets, Kauskan noted, adding that increased spending would not just last a few years but could “last a decade or more” to help deter Russia.
Kauskan said that although Trump aims to increase military spending in Europe, this is not enough to deter Russia.
He pointed out that apart from Russia, France and the United Kingdom are the only countries in Europe with nuclear capabilities. “Without a nuclear deterrent, Europe cannot deter Russia…but will Paris or London be sacrificed to save Berlin, Rome or Spain?” he asked rhetorically.
If Russia attacks a NATO country, including threatening a nuclear strike, the response from other members will be complicated, especially if the United States reduces its involvement in Europe during the Trump presidency.
Kauskan noted that Europe will be at the mercy of the United States for the foreseeable future because without U.S. support, the region’s ability to pursue independent policies will be limited.
Furthermore, he added, “Trump’s priority is not Russia, but China.”
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