Eli Lilly & Co. Zepbound Injection Pen, March 28, 2024.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
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good afternoon! Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly and Company The drug so far dominates the booming weight loss and diabetes drug markets.
But Eli Lilly may be starting to gain an advantage over its Danish rival in a two-horse race to capitalize on soaring demand for these treatments, also known as GLP-1.
That became apparent last week after both companies reported their respective second-quarter earnings.
“Eli Lilly leads the metabolic duopoly,” BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Seigerman said in a research note Thursday.
On August 7, Novo Nordisk lowered its full-year profit forecast after reporting quarterly sales of its weight-loss injection Wegovy were well below Wall Street expectations. Executives said on a conference call last week that the disappointing results were due to larger-than-expected price concessions from pharmacy benefit managers, which negotiate drug discounts with manufacturers on behalf of insurance companies.
Revenue from its blockbuster diabetes drug Ozempic also failed to meet expectations for the period. The company’s stock price plummeted.
Still, Novo Nordisk slightly raised its guidance for full-year sales growth.
Eli Lilly’s quarterly results a day later told a completely different story. The Indianapolis-based company’s weight-loss injection Zepbound and diabetes treatment Mounjaro beat second-quarter expectations.
Given the strong performance of Zepbound and Mounjaro, Eli Lilly raised its 2024 revenue forecast by $3 billion, raised full-year profit guidance and “increased clarity on the company’s manufacturing expansion of these drugs.”
Unlike Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly benefited from higher U.S. Mounjaro prices during the quarter as use of the drug’s savings card program declined. Executives said they expect Mounjaro and Zepbound pricing to remain “stable” in the final two quarters of 2024.
Eli Lilly’s shares closed up more than 9% on Thursday.
On March 8, 2024, boxes of Ozempic and Wegovy produced by Novo Nordisk can be seen in a pharmacy in London, England.
Holly Adams | Reuters
Several analysts were particularly pleased with Eli Lilly’s positive manufacturing update. U.S. demand for weight loss and diabetes drugs exceeds supply, so companies that can get more products to patients quickly could gain an advantage in the field.
All doses of Mounjaro and Zepbound are now listed on the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s Drug Shortage Database. Meanwhile, some doses of Wegovy are in limited supply as Novo Nordisk invests billions in its own manufacturing expansion.
In a research note on Thursday, Bank of America analysts raised their combined revenue forecasts for Mounjaro and Zepbound to $19.7 billion in 2024, $31 billion in 2025 and $38.5 billion in 2026 as they “become more comfortable with supply dynamics.” ”.
Analysts said Mounjaro and Zepbound may still experience intermittent supply shortages in the short term “as access conditions improve and physicians become more comfortable with supply availability.” But they applauded Lilly’s progress in expanding production and supply.
Eli Lilly and Co., for example, has built six manufacturing plants, some of which are already being expanded, and has hired thousands of workers to ramp up production, CEO David Ricks said on an earnings call Thursday. . The company acquired another location earlier this year.
Eli Lilly expects production of its incretin drug, another term for weight loss and diabetes treatment, to increase 50% in the second half of 2024 compared with the same period last year, he added.
Ricks said Eli Lilly’s ability to scale manufacturing of Zepbound and Mounjaro gives the company confidence it can compete with new entrants in the weight loss and diabetes drug markets that may not have the same capabilities.
“I don’t know if that’s a barrier, but that’s certainly what we’re working on: scaling manufacturing,” Ricks said.
“You’re talking about a billion-scale product, which takes time, is technically difficult, and is capital intensive,” he continued. “So, of course, competitors have to come. But for all of these[other drugmakers]there’s still a long way to go, and these two leading companies have already gone to a large extent.”
Please feel free to send Annika any tips, suggestions, story ideas and data: annikakim.constantino@nbcuni.com.
Latest Healthcare Technology
Stryker acquires artificial intelligence startup Care.ai
Medical technology company Stryker announced on Monday that it has agreed to acquire Care.ai, another artificial intelligence-related deal in the healthcare field.
Care.ai uses tools like artificial intelligence sensors to help clinicians monitor patients and workflow in hospitals, skilled nursing facilities and assisted living facilities. Company raising $27 million 2022 from Crescent Cove Advisors.
Stryker offers medical and surgical equipment as well as a range of orthopedic and neurotechnology products. The company said technology like Care.ai is “increasingly important” as healthcare organizations deal with challenges such as nursing shortages, burnout, administrative burdens and workplace safety concerns. Published on Monday.
Terms of the deal were not disclosed, and Stryker said the acquisition is subject to customary closing conditions.
Stryker shares were little changed on Tuesday.
“Care.ai will help Stryker significantly accelerate our healthcare IT and digital vision to provide customers with instant, smart and connected decision-making tools that improve the lives of caregivers and their patients,” said Andy Pierce, group president of MedSurg and Neurotechnology. ” Stryker said in a press release.
The technology provided by Care.ai will “seamlessly integrate” with Stryker’s platform and devices, the company added.
“Our commitment to simplifying and improving the lives of healthcare professionals and patients remains unwavering,” Care.ai founder and CEO Chakri Toleti said in a statement. Post on LinkedIn on Monday. “Together we are transforming health care, ensuring we always prioritize the well-being of those who need care and those who are dedicated to caring for others.”
Stryker declined to comment. Care.ai did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
Read the full announcement here.
Please feel free to send any tips, suggestions, story ideas and data to Ashley at ashley.capoot@nbcuni.com.